MR No.: 50/10 Singapore, Tuesday, 17 August 2010 Highlights
On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted (m-o-m SA) basis, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) decreased by 3.9 per cent in July 2010, after the previous month's marginal 0.1 per cent decline.
On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, NODX grew by 18 per cent in July 2010, following the 28 per cent rise in the previous month, due to both electronic and non-electronic NODX.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX to all of the top ten NODX markets increased. In particular, NODX to the EU 27, China and Hong Kong rose by 26 per cent, 35 per cent and 35 per cent respectively.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil re-exports (NORX) increased by 2.0 per cent in July 2010, compared to the 2.4 per cent decline in the previous month.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX increased by 18 per cent in July 2010, after the 25 per cent rise in the previous month, due to both electronic and non-electronic NORX.
Overall Trend
1.
1. On a m-o-m SA basis, NODX decreased by 3.9 per cent in July 2010, after the previous month's marginal 0.1 per cent decline, due to lower sales of both electronic and non-electronic NODX.
2.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX grew by 18 per cent in July 2010, following the 28 per cent rise in the previous month. On a 3-month moving average (3MMA) y-o-y basis, NODX increased by 23 per cent in July 2010, after the 28 per cent expansion in the previous month.
3.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil retained imports of intermediate goods2 (NORI) decreased by S$84 million from S$5,487 million in the previous month to reach S$5,403 million in July 2010.
2 NORI is a coincident indicator for NODX.
(II) Commentaries
(a)
Performance of Key Trade Components
Total Trade
4.
On a m-o-m SA basis, total trade decreased by 1.0 per cent in July 2010, compared to the 1.6 per cent rise in the previous month. Total exports contracted by 2.9 per cent in July 2010, after the 1.8 per cent decline in the previous month. Total imports increased by 1.1 per cent in July 2010, after the 5.5 per cent expansion in the previous month.
5.
On a y-o-y basis, total trade expanded by 19 per cent in July 2010, after the 27 per cent increase in the previous month. Total exports grew by 17 per cent in July 2010, following the 28 per cent rise in the previous month. Total imports expanded by 22 per cent in July 2010, after the 27 per cent increase in the preceding month.
Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX)
6.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX rose by 18 per cent in July 2010, after the 28 per cent growth in the previous month, due to both electronic and non-electronic domestic exports.
7.
Electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, electronic NODX increased by 26 per cent in July 2010, after the 44 per cent rise in the previous month. The expansion in electronic domestic exports was largely due to higher domestic exports of ICs, parts of ICs and diodes & transistors.
8.
Non-electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NODX grew by 14 per cent in July 2010, after the 21 per cent rise in the previous month. The increase in non-electronic NODX was led by higher domestic exports of structural parts, specialised machinery and petrochemicals.
Oil Domestic Exports
9.
On a m-o-m SA basis, oil domestic exports decreased by 11 per cent in July 2010, after a decline of 12 per cent in the previous month. On a y-o-y basis, oil domestic exports expanded by a marginal 1.0 per cent in July 2010, after the preceding month's 28 per cent increase. The y-o-y expansion of oil domestic exports was mainly due to higher sales to Malaysia (+23%), Panama (+19%) and Liberia (+29%). In volume terms, oil domestic exports decreased by 9.0 per cent in July 2010, after the 17 per cent rise in the previous month.
Non-oil Re-exports (NORX)
10.
On a m-o-m SA basis, NORX increased by 2.0 per cent in July 2010, compared to the 2.4 per cent decline in the previous month, due to both electronic and non-electronic NORX.
11.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX grew by 18 per cent in July 2010, after the 25 per cent expansion in the previous month, due to a rise in both electronic and non-electronic NORX. On a 3MMA y-o-y basis, NORX increased by 22 per cent in July 2010, identical to the expansion in the preceding month.
12.
On a y-o-y basis, electronic NORX increased by 26 per cent in July 2010, after the 32 per cent rise in the previous month. The expansion in electronic NORX was due to higher re-exports of ICs (+32 per cent), diodes & transistors (+27 per cent) and parts of ICs (+142 per cent).
13.
On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NORX rose by 9.5 per cent in July 2010, after the 17 per cent increase in the previous month. The rise in non-electronic NORX was led by higher re-exports of non-monetary gold (+2,589 per cent), petrochemicals (+83 per cent) and aromatic chemicals (+63 per cent).
14.
NORX to all of the top 10 NORX markets, except South Korea and Indonesia, increased in July 2010. The top three contributors to the NORX rise were Hong Kong (+35 per cent), Malaysia (+23 per cent) and China (+25 per cent).
(b) Non-Oil Domestic Export Markets
Overview3
15.
NODX to all of the top ten NODX markets increased y-o-y in July 2010. The largest contributors to the increase were the EU 27, China and Hong Kong.
3 All growth rates quoted in the following analysis refer to year-on-year growth rates unless otherwise stated.
16
EU 27 – NODX to the EU 27 rose by 26 per cent in July 2010, after the 75 per cent expansion in the previous month, because of an increase in both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the EU 27 expanded by 54 per cent in July 2010, after the previous month's 88 per cent growth, due to parts of PCs (+82 per cent), diodes & transistors (+778 per cent) and ICs (+65 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to the EU 27 increased by 16 per cent in July 2010, after the 69 per cent expansion in the previous month. The rise in non-electronic NODX was mainly led by structural parts, petrochemicals (+566 per cent) and specialised machinery (+373 per cent).
17
US – NODX to the US increased by 30 per cent in July 2010, after remaining static in the previous month, due to an increase in both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the US expanded by 6.8 per cent in July 2010, after the 36 per cent increase in the previous month, due to ICs (+51 per cent), parts of ICs (+154 per cent) and printers (+7,309 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to the US rose by 70 per cent in July 2010, in contrast to the 23 per cent contraction in the preceding month. The expansion in non-electronic NODX to the US was led by domestic exports of pharmaceuticals (+394 per cent), measuring instruments (+123 per cent) and specialised machinery (+197 per cent).
18.
China - NODX to China grew by 35 per cent in July 2010, after the 38 per cent rise in the previous month, due to both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to China expanded by 52 per cent in July 2010, after the 77 per cent rise in the previous month, because of ICs (+62 per cent), parts of ICs (+237 per cent) and parts of PCs (+74 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to China rose by 28 per cent in July 2010, after the 24 per cent increase in the preceding month, due to shipments of primary chemicals (+129 per cent), petrochemicals (+28 per cent) and specialised machinery (+115 per cent).
19.
Malaysia – NODX to Malaysia increased by 20 per cent in July 2010, after the 25 per cent increase in the previous month. The expansion in NODX was due to both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Malaysia increased by 18 per cent in July 2010, after the 20 per cent rise in the previous month. This was mainly due to ICs (+45 per cent), parts of ICs (+220 per cent) and diodes & transistors (+25 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Malaysia increased by 21 per cent in July 2010, following the previous month's 29 per cent rise. The expansion in non-electronic NODX was mainly because of specialised machinery (+233 per cent), petrochemicals (+28 per cent) and disk media products (+101 per cent).
20.
Indonesia – NODX to Indonesia grew by 9.4 per cent in July 2010, following the 25 per cent increase in the preceding month, due to higher sales of non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Indonesia decreased by 5.8 per cent in July 2010, reversing the 6.4 per cent increase in the previous month, largely due to capacitors (-83 per cent), ICs (-18 per cent) and diodes & transistors (-10 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to Indonesia grew by 15 per cent in July 2010, following the 31 per cent rise in the previous month. The expansion in non-electronic NODX was mainly due to petrochemicals (+28 per cent), non-electric parts of machinery (+153 per cent) and non-electrical machinery & parts thereof (+149 per cent).
21.
Hong Kong – NODX to Hong Kong rose by 35 per cent in July 2010, following the 36 per cent expansion in the previous month, on both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Hong Kong registered a 40 per cent increase in July 2010, identical to the rise in the previous month, because of parts of ICs (+123 per cent), parts of PCs (+51 per cent) and ICs (+17 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong increased by 28 per cent in July 2010, after the 30 per cent rise in the previous month, on sales of aircraft parts (+109 per cent), specialised machinery (+86 per cent) and electrical machinery (+43 per cent).
22.
Japan – NODX to Japan increased by 21 per cent in July 2010, after the previous month's 50 per cent rise, due to higher sales of both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Japan rose by 22 per cent in July 2010, after the 13 per cent expansion in the previous month, on domestic exports of parts of ICs (+161 per cent), disk drives (+249 per cent) and PCs (+87 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Japan in July 2010 increased by 20 per cent, after the expansion of 75 per cent in the previous month, due to sales of pharmaceuticals (+52 per cent), miscellaneous manufactured articles (+334 per cent) and specialised machinery (+100 per cent).
23.
Remaining top market4 – NODX to Taiwan, South Korea and Thailand rose in July 2010.
NODX to Taiwan increased by 37 per cent in July 2010, following the preceding month's 65 per cent rise, due to both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Taiwan expanded by 37 per cent in July 2010, after the 64 per cent rise in the previous month, mainly because of ICs (+82 per cent), diodes & transistors (+49 per cent) and telecommunications equipment (+311 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Taiwan expanded by 38 per cent in July 2010, after the previous month's growth of 67 per cent, due to specialised machinery (+276 per cent), primary chemicals (+88 per cent) and aircraft parts (+2,181 per cent).
NODX to South Korea grew by 54 per cent in July 2010, following the 49 per cent growth in the previous month, due to a rise in both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to South Korea expanded by 6.7 per cent in July 2010, after the 40 per cent rise in the previous month. This was mainly led by shipments of parts of ICs (+135 per cent), parts of PCs (+38 per cent) and PCs (+255 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to South Korea posted a 86 per cent growth in July 2010, following the previous month's 56 per cent increase, mainly due to sales of aromatic chemicals (+4,277 per cent), pharmaceuticals (+1,340 per cent) and specialised machinery (+401 per cent).
NODX to Thailand rose by 16 per cent in July 2010, after the previous month's 25 per cent expansion. The increase was due to both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Thailand rose by 27 per cent in July 2010, after the 62 per cent expansion in the previous month, mainly due to domestic exports of ICs (+71 per cent), parts of ICs (+114 per cent) and parts of PCs (+22 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Thailand increased by 12 per cent in July 2010, after the 14 per cent rise in the previous month, due to domestic exports of petrochemicals (+71 per cent), electrical circuit apparatus (+132 per cent) and primary chemicals (+29 per cent).
4 Namely Taiwan, South Korea and Thailand.
24.
Emerging markets5 – 1. NODX to emerging markets decreased by 24 per cent in July 2010, compared to the 7.0 per cent rise in the previous month. The contraction in NODX to the emerging markets was because of lower shipments to Latin America and the Middle East.
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