To be embargoed till 8.00 am on Tuesday, 14 April 2009;
MR No.: 020/09
Highlights
On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted (m-o-m SA) basis, NODX increased by 11 per cent in March 2009, following the previous month's 1.6 per cent increase.
On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, NODX declined by 17 per cent in March 2009, following the 24 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX.
On a m-o-m SA basis, NORX increased by 3.4 per cent in March 2009, following the previous month's 7.1 per cent increase.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX contracted by 15 per cent in March 2009, following the 17 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NORX.
The projection for total trade growth in 2009 has been revised downwards from between -19 and -17 per cent to between -25 and -22 per cent. The forecast for NODX growth in 2009 has also been lowered to between -13 and -10 per cent, down from the previous projection of between -11 and -9 per cent.
Overall Trend
1.
On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted (m-o-m SA) basis, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) increased by 11 per cent in March 2009, after the previous month's 1.6 per cent increase, due to higher electronic and non-electronic NODX.
2.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX decreased by 17 per cent in March 2009, following the 24 per cent decline in the preceding month. On a 3-month moving average (3MMA) y-o-y basis, NODX contracted by 26 per cent in March 2009, following the 27 per cent decline in the previous month.
3.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil retained imports of intermediate goods1 (NORI) decreased by 19 per cent in March 2009, compared to the 1.4 per cent increase in the previous month.
1NORI is a coincident indicator for NODX.
4.
On a y-o-y basis, NORI contracted by 36 per cent in March 2009, following the 19 per cent decline in the previous month. The decline in NORI was mainly due to lower NORI of parts of PCs, ICs, and, diodes and transistors.
(II) Commentaries
(a)
Performance of Key Trade Components
Total Trade
5.
On a m-o-m SA basis, total trade expanded by 0.4 per cent in March 2009, following the 6.6 per cent increase in the previous month. Total exports increased by 5.2 per cent in March 2009, after a 5.6 per cent expansion in the previous month. Total imports declined by 4.7 per cent in March 2009, compared to an increase of 7.6 per cent in the previous month.
6.
On a y-o-y basis, total trade declined by 24 per cent in March 2009, following the 22 per cent decrease in the previous month. Total exports decreased by 21 per cent in March 2009, following the 24 per cent contraction in the previous month. Total imports declined by 28 per cent in March 2009, following the 20 per cent decrease in the preceding month.
Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX)
7.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX decreased by 17 per cent in March 2009, following the 24 per cent decline in the previous month, due to contractions in both electronic and non-electronic domestic exports
8.
Electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, electronic NODX contracted by 26 per cent in March 2009, following the 32 per cent decline in the previous month. The decrease in electronic domestic exports was largely due to lower domestic exports of ICs, parts of PCs and disk drives.
9.
Non-electronic products.On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NODX decreased by 12 per cent in March 2009, following the 18 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was led by reduced domestic exports of petrochemicals, ships and boats, and electrical machinery.
Oil Domestic Exports
10.
On a m-o-m SA basis, oil domestic exports increased by 0.3 per cent in March 2009, after remaining constant in the previous month. On a y-o-y basis, oil domestic exports declined by 43 per cent in March 2009, following the preceding month's 41 per cent decrease. The y-o-y contraction of oil domestic exports was mainly due to lower sales to India (-89 per cent), Australia (-54 per cent) and Hong Kong (-36 per cent). In volume terms, oil domestic exports increased by 9.0 per cent in March 2009, following the 1.5 per cent increase in the previous month.
Non-oil Re-exports (NORX)
11.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil re-exports (NORX) expanded by 3.4 per cent in March 2009, after the 7.1 per cent increase in the previous month, due to an increase in both electronic and non-electronic NORX.
12.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX declined by 15 per cent in March 2009, following the 17 per cent contraction in the previous month, due to a decrease in electronic and non-electronic NORX. On a 3MMA y-o-y basis, NORX contracted by 23 per cent in March 2009, identical to the 23 per cent decrease in the preceding month.
13.
On a y-o-y basis, electronic NORX decreased by 22 per cent in March 2009, following the 32 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in electronic NORX was due to lower re-exports of ICs (-21 per cent), parts of PCs (-38 per cent) and consumer electronics (-37 per cent).
14.
On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NORX decreased by 5.0 per cent in March 2009, compared to the 2.8 per cent increase in the previous month. The decrease in non-electronic NORX was led by lower re-exports of electrical circuit apparatus (-28 per cent), primary chemicals (-46 per cent) and piston engines (-20 per cent). NORX to all of the top 10 NORX markets, except South Korea, decreased in March 2009. The top three contributors to the NORX contraction in March 2009 were Malaysia (-28 per cent), the EU 27 (-35 per cent) and Japan (-37 per cent).
(b) Non-Oil Domestic Export Markets
Overview 2
15.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX to all of the top 10 NODX markets, except China and Hong Kong, decreased in March 2009. The largest contributors to the NODX decline were the US, the EU 27 and Japan.
16
EU 27 - NODX to the EU 27 declined by 22 per cent in March 2009, following the 37 per cent contraction in the previous month, because of decreases in both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the EU 27 contracted by 38 per cent in March 2009, following the 32 per cent decline in the preceding month, resulting from lower domestic exports of ICs (-37 per cent), parts of PCs (-39 per cent) and disk drives (-41 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to the EU 27 contracted by 13 per cent in March 2009, following the 39 per cent decline in the previous month. The decline in non-electronic NODX was mainly led by reduced domestic exports of pharmaceuticals (-9.3 per cent), petrochemicals (-85 per cent), and ships and boats (-100 per cent).
17
US - NODX to the US decreased by 31 per cent in March 2009, following the 44 per cent contraction in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the US declined by 32 per cent in March 2009, following the 41 per cent decrease in the previous month, on lower domestic exports of ICs (-31 per cent), disk drives (-36 per cent) and parts of PCs (-22 per cent). At the same time, non-electronic NODX to the US decreased by 30 per cent in March 2009, following the 49 per cent contraction in the preceding month. In particular, the contraction in non-electronic NODX to the US was led by lower domestic exports of pharmaceuticals (-80 per cent), petrochemicals (-69 per cent) and measuring instruments (-28 per cent).
18.
China - NODX to China increased by 14 per cent in March 2009, following the 8.0 per cent increase in the previous month, due to higher non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to China decreased by 19 per cent in March 2009, following the 26 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in electronic NODX was led by lower domestic exports of parts of PCs (-45 per cent), ICs (-17 per cent) and disk drives (-35 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to China increased by 30 per cent in March 2009, after the 24 per cent increase in the preceding month, led by higher shipments of ships and boats, food preparations (+124 per cent) and primary chemicals (+24 per cent).
19.
Malaysia - NODX to Malaysia contracted by 22 per cent in March 2009, following the 21 per cent decrease in the previous month. The decline in NODX was led by decreases in both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Malaysia decreased by 17 per cent in March 2009, following the 10 per cent contraction in the previous month. The lower sales in electronic domestic exports was mainly due to reduced domestic exports of ICs (-21 per cent), parts of PCs (-24 per cent) and capacitors (-54 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Malaysia decreased by 25 per cent in March 2009, following the preceding month's 29 per cent decline. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was mainly because of lower domestic exports of petrochemicals (-47 per cent), electrical machinery (-52 per cent) and iron or steel scrap (-89 per cent).
20.
Indonesia - NODX to Indonesia contracted by 18 per cent in March 2009, following the 30 per cent decline in the preceding month, due to lower sales of electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Indonesia declined by 18 per cent in March 2009, following the 24 per cent decrease in the previous month, largely due to lower domestic exports of parts of ICs (-62 per cent), ICs (-48 per cent) and consumer electronics (-30 per cent). Similarly, non-electronic NODX to Indonesia declined by 18 per cent in March 2009, following the 32 per cent contraction in the previous month. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was mainly due to decreased sales of petrochemicals (-31 per cent), electrical machinery (-47 per cent) and motorcycles (-79 per cent).
21.
Hong Kong - NODX to Hong Kong increased by 13 per cent in March 2009, compared to the 21 per cent decline in the previous month, on higher electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Hong Kong registered a 18 per cent increase in March 2009, compared to the 15 per cent contraction in the previous month, supported by higher domestic exports of consumer electronics (+251 per cent), parts of PCs (+55 per cent), and diodes and transistors (+99 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong increased by 5.2 per cent in March 2009 compared to the 30 per cent decline in the previous month. The increase in non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong was mainly led by higher sales of aircraft parts (+370 per cent), measuring instruments (+152 per cent) and jewellery (+146 per cent).
22.
Japan - NODX to Japan declined by 33 per cent in March 2009, following the 39 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower sales of electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Japan declined by 52 per cent in March 2009, following the 43 per cent decrease in the previous month, on lower domestic exports of ICs (-52 per cent), disk drives (-53 per cent) and parts of PCs (-42 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Japan in March 2009 decreased by 20 per cent, after a contraction of 36 per cent in the previous month, mainly due to lower sales of petrochemicals (-80 per cent), disk media products (-8.2 per cent) and electrical machinery (-63 per cent).
23.
Remaining top market3 - NODX to all of the remaining top markets contracted in March 2009.
NODX to South Korea contracted by 1.7 per cent in March 2009, following the 31 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to a decline in electronic NODX which outweighed the rise in non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to South Korea decreased by 26 per cent in March 2009, following the 33 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in electronic NODX was mainly led by lower shipments of ICs (-23 per cent), parts of PCs (-19 per cent) and disk drives (-70 per cent). On the other hand, non-electronic NODX to South Korea posted a 25 per cent increase in March 2009, compared to the 29 per cent decrease in the previous month, mainly due to higher sales of pumps (+1,445 per cent), prepared additives for mineral oils (+123 per cent) and petrochemicals (+95 per cent).
NODX to Thailand declined by 26 per cent in March 2009, following the previous month's 40 per cent contraction. The decrease was due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Thailand declined by 40 per cent in March 2009, following the 48 per cent decrease in the previous month, mainly due to lower domestic exports of parts of PCs (-50 per cent), parts of ICs (-70 per cent) and PCs (-64 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Thailand contracted by 21 per cent in March 2009, following the 37 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower domestic exports of petrochemicals (-64 per cent), disk media products (-41 per cent) and electrical machinery (-68 per cent).
NODX to Taiwan declined by 12 per cent in March 2009, following the preceding month's 35 per cent decrease, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Taiwan contracted by 3.4 per cent in March 2009, following the 31 per cent decline in the previous month. The decrease in electronic NODX was mainly because of lower sales of parts of ICs (-29 per cent), ICs (-13 per cent) and parts of PCs (-36 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Taiwan decreased by 22 per cent in March 2009, following the 40 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was because of lower domestic exports of specialised machinery (-63 per cent), petrochemicals (-32 per cent) and food preparations (-63 per cent).
24.
Emerging markets4 - NODX to emerging markets decreased by 32 per cent in March 2009, compared to the 10 per cent increase in the previous month. The decrease in NODX to the emerging markets was mainly because of lower shipments to Latin America and the Caribbean.
Outlook for 2009
25.
The projection for total trade growth in 2009 has been revised downwards from between -19 and -17 per cent to between -25 and -22 per cent. The forecast for NODX growth in 2009 has also been lowered to between -13 and -10 per cent, down from the previous projection of between -11 and -9 per cent. The following details the reasons for the revision:
The contraction in both Singapore's total trade and NODX was larger than expected for the first quarter of 2009, at 28 per cent and 26 percent respectively. The corresponding figures for the first quarter of 2008 were growths of 16 per cent and 0.6 per cent.
Economists have revised their forecasts of 2009 world growth downwards since January 2009. Specifically, the IMF projects that the world economy will shrink for the first time in 60 years, by between 0.5 and 1.0 per cent in 2009, down from their previous forecast of 0.5 per cent growth in January this year.
The global trade environment has worsened with declining global trade demand and a tight credit situation. Many countries have experienced a significant decline in their trade volumes, especially the developed ones. WTO economists recently forecast that exports would shrink by roughly 9% in volume terms in 2009, the biggest contraction since the Second World War.
The impact of the fall in global export demand worldwide is affecting Asia more severely than previously anticipated. The decline in demand for goods, especially manufactured products, has affected Asian economies. The growth forecast for key Asian economies has been revised downwards since the start of January 2009.
Global semiconductor sales are expected to grow at a slower pace than in 2008, with industry experts revising their projections of 2009 sales downwards due to worsening macroeconomic conditions, reports of slowing revenue growth which are weighing down the chips sector and continuing oversupply in the chip memory sector. Gartner revised its December 2008 forecast of a 16 per cent decline in 2009 global chip sales downwards to a decrease of 24 per cent.
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