On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted (m-o-m SA) basis, NODX decreased by 1.3 per cent in April 2009, compared to the previous month’s 10 per cent increase.
On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, NODX declined by 19 per cent in April 2009, following the 17 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX.
On a m-o-m SA basis, NORX decreased by 3.3 per cent in April 2009, compared to the previous month’s 3.4 per cent increase.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX contracted by 21 per cent in April 2009, following the 15 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NORX.
Overall Trend
1.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) decreased by 1.3 per cent in April 2009, after the previous month’s 10 per cent increase, due to lower non-electronic NODX which outweighed the increase in electronic NODX.
2.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX decreased by 19 per cent in April 2009, following the 17 per cent decline in the preceding month. On a 3-month moving average (3MMA) y-o-y basis, NODX contracted by 20 per cent in April 2009, following the 26 per cent decline in the previous month.
3.
On a SA basis, non-oil retained imports of intermediate goods[1] (NORI) decreased by S$63 million from S$3,838 million in the previous month to reach S$3,775 million in April 2009.
(II) Commentaries
(a)
Performance of Key Trade Components
Total Trade
4.
On a m-o-m SA basis, total trade contracted by 0.6 per cent in April 2009, compared to the 0.3 per cent increase in the previous month. Total exports decreased by 2.1 per cent in April 2009, compared to a 5.0 per cent expansion in the previous month. Total imports increased by 1.1 per cent in April 2009, compared to a contraction of 4.7 per cent in the previous month.
5.
On a y-o-y basis, total trade declined by 28 per cent in April 2009, following the 24 per cent decrease in the previous month. Total exports decreased by 26 per cent in April 2009, following the 21 per cent contraction in the previous month. Total imports declined by 31 per cent in April 2009, following the 28 per cent decrease in the preceding month.
Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX)
6.
On a y-o-y basis, total trade declined by 28 per cent in April 2009, following the 24 per cent decrease in the previous month. Total exports decreased by 26 per cent in April 2009, following the 21 per cent contraction in the previous month. Total imports declined by 31 per cent in April 2009, following the 28 per cent decrease in the preceding month.
7.
Electronic products.On a y-o-y basis, electronic NODX contracted by 26 per cent in April 2009, identical to the decline in the previous month. The decrease in electronic domestic exports was largely due to lower domestic exports of parts of PCs, ICs and disk drives.
8.
Non-electronic products.On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NODX decreased by 15 per cent in April 2009, following the 12 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was led by reduced domestic exports of petrochemicals, pumps and disk media products.
Oil Domestic Exports
9.
On a m-o-m SA basis, oil domestic exports decreased by 9.1 per cent in April 2009, compared to an increase of 0.3 per cent in the previous month. On a y-o-y basis, oil domestic exports declined by 49 per cent in April 2009, following the preceding month’s 43 per cent decrease. The y-o-y contraction of oil domestic exports was mainly due to lower sales to Australia (-68 per cent), Malaysia (-46 per cent) and Hong Kong (-38 per cent). In volume terms, oil domestic exports decreased by 4.2 per cent in April 2009, following the 13 per cent increase in the previous month.
Non-oil Re-exports (NORX)
10.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil re-exports (NORX) contracted by 3.3 per cent in April 2009, compared to the 3.4 per cent rise in the previous month, due to a decline in non-electronic NORX which outweighed the increase in electronic NORX.
11.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX declined by 21 per cent in April 2009, following the 15 per cent contraction in the previous month, due to a decrease in electronic and non-electronic NORX. On a 3MMA y-o-y basis, NORX contracted by 17 per cent in April 2009, after the 23 per cent decrease in the preceding month.
12.
On a y-o-y basis, electronic NORX decreased by 26 per cent in April 2009, following the 22 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in electronic NORX was due to lower re-exports of ICs (-16 per cent), parts of PCs (-46 per cent) and telecommunications equipment (-42 per cent).
13.
On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NORX decreased by 14 per cent in April 2009, following the 5.0 per cent decline in the previous month. The decrease in non-electronic NORX was led by lower re-exports of electrical circuit apparatus (-30 per cent), parts for tractors and motor vehicles (-31 per cent), and electrical machinery (-23 per cent). NORX to all of the top 10 NORX markets, except Hong Kong and South Korea, decreased in April 2009. The top three contributors to the NORX contraction in April 2009 were Indonesia (-34 per cent), Malaysia (-29 per cent) and the EU 27 (-36 per cent).
(b) Non-Oil Domestic Export Markets
Overview 2
14.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX to all of the top 10 NODX markets decreased in April 2009. The largest contributors to the NODX decline were the EU 27, the US and Indonesia.
15.
EU 27 - NODX to the EU 27 declined by 31 per cent in April 2009, following the 24 per cent contraction in the previous month, because of decreases in both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the EU 27 contracted by 34 per cent in April 2009, following the 38 per cent decline in the preceding month, resulting from lower domestic exports of disk drives (-35 per cent), ICs (-29 per cent) and parts of PCs (-32 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to the EU 27 contracted by 29 per cent in April 2009, following the 16 per cent decline in the previous month. The decline in non-electronic NODX was mainly led by reduced domestic exports of pharmaceuticals (-25 per cent), tin (-100 per cent) and petrochemicals (-64 per cent).
16.
US - NODX to the US decreased by 35 per cent in April 2009, following the 31 per cent contraction in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the US declined by 39 per cent in April 2009, following the 32 per cent decrease in the previous month, on lower domestic exports of parts of PCs (-49 per cent), disk drives (-44 per cent) and ICs (-29 per cent). At the same time, non-electronic NODX to the US decreased by 28 per cent in April 2009, following the 30 per cent contraction in the preceding month. In particular, the contraction in non-electronic NODX to the US was led by lower domestic exports of measuring instruments (-66 per cent), electrical circuit apparatus (-53 per cent) and other animal or vegetable oils (-100 per cent).
17.
China - NODX to China decreased by 15 per cent in April 2009, compared to the 14 per cent increase in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to China decreased by 21 per cent in April 2009, following the 19 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in electronic NODX was led by lower domestic exports of parts of PCs (-42 per cent), disk drives (-39 per cent) and PCs (-83 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to China decreased by 11 per cent in April 2009, compared to the 29 per cent increase in the preceding month, led by lower shipments of heating and cooling equipment (-84 per cent), plastic plates and sheets (-95 per cent) and petrochemicals (-11 per cent).
18.
Malaysia - NODX to Malaysia contracted by 23 per cent in April 2009, following the 22 per cent decrease in the previous month. The decline in NODX was led by decreases in both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Malaysia decreased by 19 per cent in April 2009, following the 17 per cent contraction in the previous month. The lower sales in electronic domestic exports was mainly due to reduced domestic exports of parts of PCs (-52 per cent), diodes and transistors (-38 per cent), and telecommunications equipment (-60 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Malaysia decreased by 25 per cent in April 2009, identical to the preceding month’s decline. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was mainly because of lower domestic exports of petrochemicals (-42 per cent), iron or steel scrap (-74 per cent) and electrical machinery (-44 per cent).
19.
Indonesia - NODX to Indonesia contracted by 33 per cent in April 2009, following the 18 per cent decline in the preceding month, due to lower sales of electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Indonesia declined by 33 per cent in April 2009, following the 18 per cent decrease in the previous month, largely due to lower domestic exports of parts of ICs (-79 per cent), parts of PCs (-39 per cent) and consumer electronics (-66 per cent). Similarly, non-electronic NODX to Indonesia declined by 33 per cent in April 2009, following the 18 per cent contraction in the previous month. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was mainly due to decreased sales of petrochemicals (-55 per cent), electrical machinery (-53 per cent) and electrical circuit apparatus (-34 per cent).
20.
Hong Kong - NODX to Hong Kong decreased by 8.4 per cent in April 2009, compared to the 13 per cent increase in the previous month, on lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Hong Kong registered a 3.5 per cent decrease in April 2009, compared to the 18 per cent rise in the previous month, due to lower domestic exports of ICs (-11 per cent), telecommunications equipment (-49 per cent), and diodes and transistors (-19 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong decreased by 16 per cent in April 2009 compared to the 5.2 per cent increase in the previous month. The decrease in non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong was mainly led by lower sales of petrochemicals (-51 per cent), electrical machinery (-27 per cent) and metalworking machinery (-95 per cent).
21.
Japan - NODX to Japan declined by 34 per cent in April 2009, following the 33 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower sales of electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Japan declined by 35 per cent in April 2009, following the 52 per cent decrease in the previous month, on lower domestic exports of ICs (-35 per cent), telecommunications equipment (-96 per cent) and parts of ICs (-52 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Japan in April 2009 decreased by 34 per cent, after a contraction of 20 per cent in the previous month, mainly due to lower sales of disk media products (-28 per cent), petrochemicals (-71 per cent) and metal waste or scrap (excluding iron) (-90 per cent).
22.
Remaining top market3 - NODX to all of the remaining top markets contracted in April 2009.
NODX to South Korea contracted by 20 per cent in April 2009, following the 1.7 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to a decline in both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to South Korea decreased by 30 per cent in April 2009, following the 26 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in electronic NODX was mainly led by lower shipments of ICs (-15 per cent), PCs (-85 per cent) and parts of PCs (-31 per cent). Similarly, non-electronic NODX to South Korea posted a 9.5 per cent decrease in April 2009, compared to the 25 per cent increase in the previous month, mainly due to lower sales of parts for tractors and motor vehicles (-32 per cent), measuring instruments (-46 per cent) and pharmaceuticals (-62 per cent).
NODX to Thailand declined by 28 per cent in April 2009, following the previous month’s 26 per cent contraction. The decrease was due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Thailand declined by 29 per cent in April 2009, following the 40 per cent decrease in the previous month, mainly due to lower domestic exports of parts of PCs (-28 per cent), parts of ICs (-51 per cent) and ICs (-13 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Thailand contracted by 27 per cent in April 2009, following the 21 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower domestic exports of petrochemicals (-59 per cent), disk media products (-24 per cent) and aircraft parts (-96 per cent).
NODX to Taiwan declined by 3.4 per cent in April 2009, following the preceding month’s 12 per cent decrease, due to lower non-electronic NODX which outweighed the increase in electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Taiwan increased by 22 per cent in April 2009, compared to the 3.4 per cent decline in the previous month. The increase in electronic NODX was mainly because of higher sales of diodes and transistors (+277 per cent), bare PCB (+1,920 per cent) and parts of ICs (+22 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Taiwan decreased by 28 per cent in April 2009, following the 22 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was because of lower domestic exports of petrochemicals (-47 per cent), specialised machinery (-73 per cent) and tin (-100 per cent).
23.
Emerging markets4 - NODX to emerging markets increased by 18 per cent in April 2009, compared to the 32 per cent decrease in the previous month. The increase in NODX to the emerging markets was mainly because of higher shipments to Latin America.
[1] NORI is a coincident indicator for NODX.
[2] All growth rates quoted in the following analysis refer to year-on-year growth rates unless otherwise stated.
[3] Includes Taiwan, Thailand and South Korea.
[4] Includes Indo-China, Central & South Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, the Caribbean, Eastern Europe, and North & South Africa.
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