On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted (m-o-m SA) basis, NODX increased by 6.1 per cent in July 2009, compared to the previous month’s 5.0 per cent decrease.
On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, NODX declined by 8.5 per cent in July 2009, following the 11 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil re-exports (NORX) increased by 6.1 per cent in July 2009, in contrast to the 1.8 per cent decline in the previous month.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX contracted by 17 per cent in July 2009, after the 19 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NORX.
Overall Trend
1.
On a m-o-m SA basis, NODX increased by 6.1 per cent in July 2009, compared to the previous month’s 5.0 per cent decrease, due to higher electronic and non-electronic NODX.
2.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX declined by 8.5 per cent in July 2009, following the 11 per cent decrease in the previous month. On a 3-month moving average (3MMA) y-o-y basis, NODX contracted by 11 per cent in July 2009, following the 14 per cent decline in the previous month.
3.
On a SA basis, non-oil retained imports of intermediate goods[1] (NORI) decreased by S$159 million from S$4,365 million in the previous month to reach S$4,206 million in July 2009.
(II) Commentaries
(a)
Performance of Key Trade Components
Total Trade
4.
On a m-o-m SA basis, total trade increased by 5.5 per cent in July 2009, compared to the 0.5 per cent decline in the previous month. Total exports rose by 6.3 per cent in July 2009, compared to a 1.0 per cent decrease in the previous month. Total imports increased by 4.6 per cent in July 2009, after remaining stagnant in the previous month.
5.
On a y-o-y basis, total trade declined by 25 per cent in July 2009, identical to the decrease in the previous month. Total exports decreased by 22 per cent in July 2009, after the 24 per cent contraction in the previous month. Total imports declined by 27 per cent in July 2009, following the 26 per cent decrease in the preceding month.
Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX)
6.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX decreased by 8.5 per cent in July 2009, following the 11 per cent decline in the previous month, due to contractions in both electronic and non-electronic domestic exports.
7.
Electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, electronic NODX contracted by 14 per cent in July 2009, after the 22 per cent decline in the previous month. The decrease in electronic domestic exports was largely due to lower domestic exports of parts of ICs, ICs and parts of PCs.
8.
Non-electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NODX decreased by 4.8 per cent in July 2009, following the 4.7 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was led by reduced domestic exports of petrochemicals, electrical machinery, and heating and cooling equipment.
Oil Domestic Exports
9.
On a m-o-m SA basis, oil domestic exports increased by 12 per cent in July 2009, following a rise of 9.7 per cent in the previous month. On a y-o-y basis, oil domestic exports declined by 44 per cent in July 2009, identical to the preceding month’s decrease. The y-o-y contraction of oil domestic exports was mainly due to lower sales to the EU 27 (-65 per cent), Hong Kong (-40 per cent) and Malaysia (-40 per cent). In volume terms, oil domestic exports increased by 11 per cent in July 2009, after the 1.5 per cent increase in the previous month.
Non-oil Re-exports (NORX)
10.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil re-exports (NORX) increased by 6.1 per cent in July 2009, in contrast to the 1.8 per cent decline in the previous month, due to a rise in both electronic and non-electronic NORX.
11.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX declined by 17 per cent in July 2009, after the 19 per cent contraction in the previous month, due to a decrease in electronic and non-electronic NORX. On a 3MMA y-o-y basis, NORX contracted by 19 per cent in July 2009, after a 20 per cent decrease in the preceding month.
12.
On a y-o-y basis, electronic NORX decreased by 20 per cent in July 2009, following the 24 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in electronic NORX was due to lower re-exports of ICs (-8.7 per cent), diodes and transistors (-41 per cent), and parts of PCs (-28 per cent).
13.
On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NORX decreased by 13 per cent in July 2009, identical to the decline in the previous month. The decrease in non-electronic NORX was led by lower re-exports of civil engineering equipment parts (-25 per cent), non-monetary gold (-86 per cent) and clothing (-38 per cent).
14.
NORX to all of the top 10 NORX markets, except South Korea, decreased in July 2009. The top three contributors to the NORX contraction in July 2009 were Malaysia (-20 per cent), the EU 27 (-30 per cent) and China (-21 per cent).
(b) Non-Oil Domestic Export Markets
Overview 2
15.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX to all of the top 10 NODX markets, except the EU 27 and Taiwan, decreased in July 2009. The largest contributors to the NODX decline were the United States, Indonesia and Malaysia.
16
EU 27 – NODX to the EU 27 expanded by 9.4 per cent in July 2009, in contrast to the 36 per cent contraction in the previous month, because of an increase in non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the EU 27 contracted by 26 per cent in July 2009, following the 37 per cent decline in the preceding month, due to lower domestic exports of parts of PCs (-54 per cent), ICs (-45 per cent) and office machines (-56 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to the EU 27 increased by 32 per cent in July 2009, in contrast to the 36 per cent decline in the previous month. The increase in non-electronic NODX was mainly led by higher domestic exports of pharmaceuticals (+63 per cent), aircraft parts (+63 per cent) and medical apparatus (+41 per cent).
17
US – NODX to the US decreased by 24 per cent in July 2009, after the 5.3 per cent decline in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the US declined by 22 per cent in July 2009, after the 37 per cent decrease in the previous month, on lower domestic exports of ICs (-48 per cent), parts of ICs (-79 per cent) and telecommunications equipment (-48 per cent). On the other hand, non-electronic NODX to the US declined by 27 per cent in July 2009, in contrast to the 40 per cent growth in the preceding month. In particular, the decline in non-electronic NODX to the US was led by lower domestic exports of pharmaceuticals (-38 per cent), aircraft parts (-28 per cent), and other animal and vegetable oils (-99 per cent).
18.
China - NODX to China decreased by 13 per cent in July 2009, after the 9.1 per cent decline in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to China decreased by 22 per cent in July 2009, identical to the decline in the previous month. The contraction in electronic NODX was led by lower domestic exports of parts of PCs (-30 per cent), ICs (-17 per cent) and parts of ICs (-43 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to China decreased by 8.5 per cent in July 2009, following the 3.4 per cent decline in the preceding month, led by lower shipments of petrochemicals (-18 per cent), primary chemicals (-30 per cent) and metal removing machine tools (-94 per cent).
19.
Malaysia - NODX to Malaysia contracted by 19 per cent in July 2009, after the 23 per cent decrease in the previous month. The decline in NODX was due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Malaysia decreased by 23 per cent in July 2009, following the 24 per cent contraction in the previous month. The lower sales in electronic domestic exports was mainly due to reduced domestic exports of parts of ICs (-82 per cent), diodes and transistors (-55 per cent), and consumer electronics (-54 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Malaysia decreased by 17 per cent in July 2009, after the previous month’s 23 per cent contraction. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was mainly because of lower domestic exports of petrochemicals (-36 per cent), iron or steel scrap (-69 per cent) and metal manufactures (-32 per cent).
20.
Indonesia - NODX to Indonesia contracted by 24 per cent in July 2009, following the 18 per cent decline in the preceding month, due to lower sales of electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Indonesia declined by 3.9 per cent in July 2009, following the 22 per cent decrease in the previous month, largely due to lower domestic exports of parts of ICs (-69 per cent), parts of PCs (-20 per cent) and consumer electronics (-21 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to Indonesia declined by 29 per cent in July 2009, following the 17 per cent contraction in the previous month. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was mainly due to decreased sales of petrochemicals (-39 per cent), metal manufactures (-79 per cent) and electrical circuit apparatus (-31 per cent).
21.
Hong Kong - NODX to Hong Kong declined by 2.8 per cent in July 2009, after the 3.6 per cent decrease in the previous month, on lower non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Hong Kong registered a 3.3 per cent increase in July 2009, up on the 0.3 per cent rise in the previous month, due to higher domestic exports of parts of PCs (+27 per cent), consumer electronics (+67 per cent), and diodes and transistors (+22 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong decreased by 11 per cent in July 2009, after the 8.6 per cent decline in the previous month. The decrease in non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong was mainly led by lower sales of petrochemicals (-46 per cent), watches and clocks (-45 per cent), and works of art (-97 per cent).
22.
Japan - NODX to Japan declined by 17 per cent in July 2009, following the 22 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower sales of electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Japan declined by 23 per cent in July 2009, following the 22 per cent decrease in the previous month, on lower domestic exports of parts of ICs (-66 per cent), telecommunications equipment (-93 per cent) and disk drives (-23 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Japan in July 2009 decreased by 11 per cent, after a contraction of 23 per cent in the previous month, mainly due to lower sales of specialised machinery (-53 per cent), petrochemicals (-37 per cent) and mechanical handling equipment (-97 per cent).
23.
Remaining top market3 - NODX to Taiwan increased, while NODX to South Korea and Thailand contracted in July 2009.
NODX to Taiwan increased by 12 per cent in July 2009, following the preceding month’s 8.4 per cent rise, due to higher electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Taiwan increased by 16 per cent in July 2009, following the 28 per cent rise in the previous month. The increase in electronic NODX was mainly because of parts of PCs (+82 per cent), ICs (+9.3 per cent) and parts of ICs (+16 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Taiwan increased by 8.4 per cent in July 2009, in contrast to the 10 per cent decline in the previous month. The rise in non-electronic NODX was because of higher domestic exports of measuring instruments (+680 per cent), specialised machinery (+389 per cent) and electrical machinery (+561 per cent).
NODX to South Korea decreased by 6.7 per cent in July 2009, after the 13 per cent decline in the previous month, due to a decrease in non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to South Korea increased by 0.8 per cent in July 2009, in contrast to the 15 per cent decline in the previous month. The increase in electronic NODX was mainly led by higher shipments of ICs (+29 per cent), printers (+132 per cent) and bare printed circuit boards (+22 per cent). On the other hand, non-electronic NODX to South Korea posted a 11 per cent decrease in July 2009, after the 10 per cent contraction in the previous month, mainly due to lower sales of electrical machinery (-83 per cent), disk media products (-77 per cent) and glass (-74 per cent).
NODX to Thailand declined by 14 per cent in July 2009, after the previous month’s 20 per cent contraction. The decrease was due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Thailand declined by 20 per cent in July 2009, following the 23 per cent decrease in the previous month, mainly due to lower domestic exports of ICs (-42 per cent), parts of ICs (-50 per cent), and diodes and transistors (-29 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Thailand contracted by 12 per cent in July 2009, following the 19 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower domestic exports of petrochemicals (-51 per cent), primary chemicals (-27 per cent), and pulp for paper and waste (-83 per cent).
24.
Emerging markets4 - NODX to emerging markets increased by 6.9 per cent in July 2009, following the 27 per cent increase in the previous month. The increase in NODX to the emerging markets was because of higher shipments to Latin America.
[1] NORI is a coincident indicator for NODX.
[2] All growth rates quoted in the following analysis refer to year-on-year growth rates unless otherwise stated.
[3] Includes Taiwan, Thailand and South Korea.
[4] Includes Indo-China, Central & South Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, the Caribbean, Eastern Europe, and North & South Africa.
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