On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted (m-o-m SA) basis, NODX decreased by 5.2 per cent in June 2009, compared to the previous month’s 5.3 per cent increase.
On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, NODX declined by 11 per cent in June 2009, following the 12 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX contracted by 19 per cent in June 2009, after the 21 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NORX.
Overall Trend
1.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) decreased by 5.2 per cent in June 2009, compared to the previous month’s 5.3 per cent increase, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX.
2.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX decreased by 11 per cent in June 2009, following the 12 per cent decline in the preceding month. On a 3-month moving average (3MMA) y-o-y basis, NODX contracted by 14 per cent in June 2009, following the 16 per cent decline in the previous month.
3.
On a SA basis, non-oil retained imports of intermediate goods1 (NORI) increased by S$639 million from S$3,740 million in the previous month to reach S$4,379 million in June 2009.
(II) Commentaries
(a)
Performance of Key Trade Components
Total Trade
4.
On a m-o-m SA basis, total trade contracted by 0.4 per cent in June 2009, compared to the 3.3 per cent rise in the previous month. Total exports decreased by 1.1 per cent in June 2009, compared to a 2.3 per cent increase in the previous month. Total imports increased by 0.2 per cent in June 2009, after a rise of 4.5 per cent in the previous month.
5.
On a y-o-y basis, total trade declined by 25 per cent in June 2009, following the 27 per cent decrease in the previous month. Total exports decreased by 24 per cent in June 2009, after the 26 per cent contraction in the previous month. Total imports declined by 26 per cent in June 2009, following the 28 per cent decrease in the preceding month.
Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX)
6.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX decreased by 11 per cent in June 2009, following the 12 per cent decline in the previous month, due to contractions in both electronic and non-electronic domestic exports.
7.
Electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, electronic NODX contracted by 21 per cent in June 2009, after the 22 per cent decline in the previous month. The decrease in electronic domestic exports was largely due to lower domestic exports of parts of ICs, parts of PCs and telecommunications equipment.
8.
Non-electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NODX decreased by 4.6 per cent in June 2009, following the 5.9 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was led by reduced domestic exports of petrochemicals, primary chemicals, and heating and cooling equipment.
Oil Domestic Exports
9.
On a m-o-m SA basis, oil domestic exports increased by 9.7 per cent in June 2009, following a rise of 8.4 per cent in the previous month. On a y-o-y basis, oil domestic exports declined by 44 per cent in June 2009, following the preceding month’s 46 per cent decrease. The y-o-y contraction of oil domestic exports was mainly due to lower sales to Hong Kong (-48 per cent), Malaysia (-44 per cent) and the EU 27 (-51 per cent). In volume terms, oil domestic exports increased by 1.2 per cent in June 2009, after the 6.0 per cent increase in the previous month.
Non-oil Re-exports (NORX)
10.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil re-exports (NORX) decreased by 1.6 per cent in June 2009, in contrast to the 0.2 per cent rise in the previous month, due to a decrease in both electronic and non-electronic NORX.
11.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX declined by 19 per cent in June 2009, after the 21 per cent contraction in the previous month, due to a decrease in electronic and non-electronic NORX. On a 3MMA y-o-y basis, NORX contracted by 20 per cent in June 2009, after a 19 per cent decrease in the preceding month.
12.
On a y-o-y basis, electronic NORX decreased by 24 per cent in June 2009, following the 23 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in electronic NORX was due to lower re-exports of ICs (-12 per cent), parts of PCs (-37 per cent) and telecommunications equipment (-48 per cent).
13.
On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NORX decreased by 13 per cent in June 2009, following the 19 per cent decline in the previous month. The decrease in non-electronic NORX was led by lower re-exports of steam engines (-98 per cent), primary chemicals (-52 per cent) and electrical circuit apparatus (-23 per cent).
14.
NORX to all of the top 10 NORX markets, except South Korea, decreased in June 2009. The top three contributors to the NORX contraction in June 2009 were Malaysia (-30 per cent), China (-29 per cent) and the EU 27 (-32 per cent).
(b) Non-Oil Domestic Export Markets
Overview 2
15.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX to all of the top 10 NODX markets, except Taiwan, decreased in June 2009. The largest contributors to the NODX decline were the EU 27, Malaysia and Japan.
16
EU 27 – NODX to the EU 27 declined by 36 per cent in June 2009, following the 9.6 per cent contraction in the previous month, because of a decrease in both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the EU 27 contracted by 37 per cent in June 2009, following the 38 per cent decline in the preceding month, due to lower domestic exports of parts of PCs (-57 per cent), ICs (-38 per cent) and disk drives (-14 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to the EU 27 decreased by 36 per cent in June 2009, in contrast to the 8.1 per cent rise in the previous month. The decrease in non-electronic NODX was mainly led by reduced domestic exports of pharmaceuticals (-48 per cent), petrochemicals (-60 per cent) and ship and boats (-77 per cent).
17
US – NODX to the US decreased by 5.0 per cent in June 2009, after the 35 per cent decline in the previous month, due to lower electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the US declined by 37 per cent in June 2009, identical to the decrease in the previous month, on lower domestic exports of ICs (-46 per cent), telecommunications equipment (-77 per cent) and parts of PCs (-20 per cent). On the other hand, non-electronic NODX to the US rose by 40 per cent in June 2009, in contrast to the 33 per cent contraction in the preceding month. In particular, the rise in non-electronic NODX to the US was led by higher domestic exports of ships and boats, medical apparatus (+38 per cent) and electrical power machinery (+157 per cent).
18.
China - NODX to China decreased by 9.0 per cent in June 2009, after the 18 per cent decline in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to China decreased by 22 per cent in June 2009, following the 32 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in electronic NODX was led by lower domestic exports of ICs (-31 per cent), telecommunications equipment (-86 per cent) and parts of ICs (-24 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to China decreased by 3.2 per cent in June 2009, following the 9.8 per cent decline in the preceding month, led by lower shipments of heating and cooling equipment (-82 per cent), petrochemicals (-17 per cent) and primary chemicals (-31 per cent).
19.
Malaysia - NODX to Malaysia contracted by 23 per cent in June 2009, identical to the decrease in the previous month. The decline in NODX was due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Malaysia decreased by 24 per cent in June 2009, following the 13 per cent contraction in the previous month. The lower sales in electronic domestic exports was mainly due to reduced domestic exports of parts of ICs (-81 per cent), other computer peripherals (-95 per cent) and parts of PCs (-28 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Malaysia decreased by 23 per cent in June 2009, after the previous month’s 29 per cent contraction. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was mainly because of lower domestic exports of petrochemicals (-35 per cent), iron or steel scrap (-78 per cent) and specialised machinery (-50 per cent).
20.
Indonesia - NODX to Indonesia contracted by 18 per cent in June 2009, following the 21 per cent decline in the preceding month, due to lower sales of electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Indonesia declined by 22 per cent in June 2009, following the 27 per cent decrease in the previous month, largely due to lower domestic exports of consumer electronics (-52 per cent), parts of PCs (-26 per cent) and parts of ICs (-48 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to Indonesia declined by 17 per cent in June 2009, following the 19 per cent contraction in the previous month. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was mainly due to decreased sales of petrochemicals (-30 per cent), electrical machinery (-37 per cent) and metal manufactures (-60 per cent).
21.
Hong Kong - NODX to Hong Kong declined by 3.6 per cent in June 2009, after the 0.7 per cent decrease in the previous month, on lower non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Hong Kong registered a 0.3 per cent increase in June 2009, after a 7.9 per cent rise in the previous month, due to higher domestic exports of parts of PCs (+29 per cent), consumer electronics (+34 per cent), and diodes and transistors (+13 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong decreased by 8.6 per cent in June 2009, after the 12 per cent decline in the previous month. The decrease in non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong was mainly led by lower sales of petrochemicals (-62 per cent), food preparations (-82 per cent) and electrical power machinery (-73 per cent).
22.
Japan - NODX to Japan declined by 22 per cent in June 2009, following the 29 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower sales of electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Japan declined by 22 per cent in June 2009, following the 32 per cent decrease in the previous month, on lower domestic exports of ICs (-12 per cent), parts of ICs (-37 per cent) and disk drives (-29 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Japan in June 2009 decreased by 23 per cent, after a contraction of 27 per cent in the previous month, mainly due to lower sales of petrochemicals (-53 per cent), specialised machinery (-72 per cent) and disk media products (-10 per cent).
23.
Remaining top market3 - NODX to Taiwan increased, while NODX to South Korea and Thailand contracted in June 2009.
NODX to Taiwan increased by 8.4 per cent in June 2009, following the preceding month’s 3.5 per cent rise, due to higher electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Taiwan increased by 28 per cent in June 2009, following the 19 per cent rise in the previous month. The increase in electronic NODX was mainly because of higher sales of ICs (+42 per cent), parts of ICs (+14 per cent) and parts of PCs (+38 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Taiwan decreased by 10 per cent in June 2009, following the 12 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was because of lower domestic exports of petrochemicals (-39 per cent), primary chemicals (-34 per cent) and electrical circuit apparatus (-56 per cent).
NODX to South Korea decreased by 12 per cent in June 2009, in contrast to the 0.4 per cent increase in the previous month, due to a decrease in both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to South Korea decreased by 15 per cent in June 2009, in contrast to the 6.3 per cent rise in the previous month. The decrease in electronic NODX was mainly led by lower shipments of capacitors (-100 per cent), parts of PCs (-39 per cent) and parts of ICs (-30 per cent). Similarly, non-electronic NODX to South Korea posted a 10 per cent decrease in June 2009, after the 4.1 per cent contraction in the previous month, mainly due to lower sales of parts for tractors and motor vehicles (-36 per cent), petrochemicals (-49 per cent) and metalworking machinery (-77 per cent).
NODX to Thailand declined by 20 per cent in June 2009, identical to the previous month’s contraction. The decrease was due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Thailand declined by 23 per cent in June 2009, following the 14 per cent decrease in the previous month, mainly due to lower domestic exports of parts of ICs (-61 per cent), ICs (-24 per cent) and telecommunications equipment (-81 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Thailand contracted by 19 per cent in June 2009, following the 22 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower domestic exports of petrochemicals (-64 per cent), primary chemicals (-35 per cent) and specialised machinery (-73 per cent).
24.
Emerging markets4 - NODX to emerging markets increased by 27 per cent in June 2009, following the 31 per cent increase in the previous month. The increase in NODX to the emerging markets was mainly because of higher shipments to Latin America.
[1] NORI is a coincident indicator for NODX.
[2] All growth rates quoted in the following analysis refer to year-on-year growth rates unless otherwise stated.
[3] Includes Taiwan, Thailand and South Korea.
[4] Includes Indo-China, Central & South Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, the Caribbean, Eastern Europe, and North & South Africa.
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