To be embargoed till 1.00 pm on Wednesday, 17 Junel 2009
MR No.: 041/09
Highlights
On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted (m-o-m SA) basis, NODX increased by 5.6 per cent in May 2009, compared to the previous month’s 1.4 per cent decrease.
On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, NODX declined by 12 per cent in May 2009, following the 19 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX.
On a m-o-m SA basis, NORX increased by 0.3 per cent in May 2009, in contrast to the previous month’s 3.3 per cent decline.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX contracted by 21 per cent in May 2009, identical to the decrease in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NORX.
Overall Trend
1.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) increased by 5.6 per cent in May 2009, after the previous month’s 1.4 per cent decrease, due to higher electronic and non-electronic NODX.
2.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX decreased by 12 per cent in May 2009, following the 19 per cent decline in the preceding month. On a 3-month moving average (3MMA) y-o-y basis, NODX contracted by 16 per cent in May 2009, following the 20 per cent decline in the previous month.
3.
1. On a SA basis, non-oil retained imports of intermediate goods (NORI) decreased by S$39 million from S$3,774 million in the previous month to reach S$3,735 million in May 2009.
1NORI is a coincident indicator for NODX.
(II) Commentaries
(a)
Performance of Key Trade Components
Total Trade
4.
On a m-o-m SA basis, total trade expanded by 3.4 per cent in May 2009, compared to the 0.6 per cent decline in the previous month. Total exports increased by 2.5 per cent in May 2009, compared to a 2.1 per cent decrease in the previous month. Total imports increased by 4.5 per cent in May 2009, after a rise of 1.1 per cent in the previous month.
5.
1. On a y-o-y basis, total trade declined by 27 per cent in May 2009, following the 29 per cent decrease in the previous month. Total exports decreased by 26 per cent in May 2009, identical to the contraction in the previous month. Total imports declined by 28 per cent in May 2009, following the 31 per cent decrease in the preceding month.
Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX)
6.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX decreased by 12 per cent in May 2009, following the 19 per cent decline in the previous month, due to contractions in both electronic and non-electronic domestic exports.
7.
Electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, electronic NODX contracted by 22 per cent in May 2009, after the 26 per cent decline in the previous month. The decrease in electronic domestic exports was largely due to lower domestic exports of parts of PCs, parts of ICs and disk drives.
8.
Non-electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NODX decreased by 5.6 per cent in May 2009, following the 15 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was led by reduced domestic exports of petrochemicals, primary chemicals and specialised machinery.
Oil Domestic Exports
9.
On a m-o-m SA basis, oil domestic exports increased by 8.6 per cent in May 2009, compared to a decrease of 9.2 per cent in the previous month. On a y-o-y basis, oil domestic exports declined by 46 per cent in May 2009, following the preceding month’s 49 per cent decrease. The y-o-y contraction of oil domestic exports was mainly due to lower sales to Australia (-66 per cent), Hong Kong (-49 per cent) and Malaysia (-46 per cent). In volume terms, oil domestic exports increased by 5.4 per cent in May 2009, in contrast to the 6.1 per cent decrease in the previous month.
Non-oil Re-exports (NORX)
10.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil re-exports (NORX) increased by 0.3 per cent in May 2009, in contrast to the 3.3 per cent decline in the previous month, due to an increase in electronic NORX.
11.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX declined by 21 per cent in May 2009, identical to the contraction in the previous month, due to a decrease in electronic and non-electronic NORX. On a 3MMA y-o-y basis, NORX contracted by 19 per cent in May 2009, after an 18 per cent decrease in the preceding month.
12.
1. On a y-o-y basis, electronic NORX decreased by 23 per cent in May 2009, following the 26 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in electronic NORX was due to lower re-exports of ICs (-11 per cent), telecommunications equipment (-49 per cent), and diodes and transistors (-43 per cent).
13.
13. On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NORX decreased by 19 per cent in May 2009, following the 14 per cent decline in the previous month. The decrease in non-electronic NORX was led by lower re-exports of precious stones and pearls (-70 per cent), primary chemicals (-45 per cent) and nickel (-61 per cent).
14.
NORX to all of the top 10 NORX markets, except South Korea, decreased in May 2009. The top three contributors to the NORX contraction in May 2009 were Malaysia (-28 per cent), Indonesia (-30 per cent) and the EU 27 (-40 per cent).
(b) Non-Oil Domestic Export Markets
Overview 2
15.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX to all of the top 10 NODX markets except Taiwan and South Korea decreased in May 2009. The largest contributors to the NODX decline were the US, Malaysia and Japan.
16
EU 27 – NODX to the EU 27 declined by 9.6 per cent in May 2009, following the 31 per cent contraction in the previous month, because of a decrease in electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the EU 27 contracted by 38 per cent in May 2009, following the 34 per cent decline in the preceding month, due to lower domestic exports of parts of PCs (-51 per cent), ICs (-36 per cent) and disk drives (-32 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to the EU 27 expanded by 8.1 per cent in May 2009, in contrast to the 29 per cent decline in the previous month. The rise in non-electronic NODX was mainly led by increased domestic exports of pharmaceuticals (+16 per cent), aircraft parts (+139 per cent) and medical apparatus (+57 per cent).>
17
US – NODX to the US decreased by 35 per cent in May 2009, identical to the decline in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the US declined by 37 per cent in May 2009, following the 39 per cent decrease in the previous month, on lower domestic exports of parts of PCs (-39 per cent), disk drives (-41 per cent) and ICs (-19 per cent). At the same time, non-electronic NODX to the US decreased by 33 per cent in May 2009, following the 28 per cent contraction in the preceding month. In particular, the contraction in non-electronic NODX to the US was led by lower domestic exports of pharmaceuticals (-63 per cent), specialised machinery (-49 per cent) and measuring instruments (-29 per cent).
18.
China - NODX to China decreased by 18 per cent in May 2009, after the 15 per cent decline in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to China decreased by 32 per cent in May 2009, following the 21 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in electronic NODX was led by lower domestic exports of office machines (-91 per cent), parts of PCs (-34 per cent) and capacitors (-86 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to China decreased by 9.6 per cent in May 2009, following the 12 per cent decrease in the preceding month, led by lower shipments of petrochemicals (-15 per cent), plastic plates and sheets (-93 per cent), and heating and cooling equipment (-62 per cent). >
19.
Malaysia - NODX to Malaysia contracted by 23 per cent in May 2009, identical to the decrease in the previous month. The decline in NODX was due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Malaysia decreased by 13 per cent in May 2009, following the 19 per cent contraction in the previous month. The lower sales in electronic domestic exports was mainly due to reduced domestic exports of parts of PCs (-42 per cent), diodes and transistors (-49 per cent), and telecommunications equipment (-60 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Malaysia decreased by 29 per cent in May 2009, after the previous month’s 25 per cent contraction. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was mainly because of lower domestic exports of civil engineering equipment parts (-75 per cent), petrochemicals (-23 per cent) and iron or steel scrap (-76 per cent).
20.
Indonesia - NODX to Indonesia contracted by 21 per cent in May 2009, following the 33 per cent decline in the preceding month, due to lower sales of electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Indonesia declined by 27 per cent in May 2009, following the 33 per cent decrease in the previous month, largely due to lower domestic exports of consumer electronics (-58 per cent), parts of PCs (-43 per cent) and parts of ICs (-60 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to Indonesia declined by 19 per cent in May 2009, following the 33 per cent contraction in the previous month. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was mainly due to decreased sales of petrochemicals (-37 per cent), electrical machinery (-34 per cent) and motorcycles (-76 per cent).
21.
Hong Kong - NODX to Hong Kong dipped by 0.3 per cent in May 2009, after the 8.4 per cent decrease in the previous month, on lower non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Hong Kong registered a 8.4 per cent increase in May 2009, in contrast to the 3.5 per cent decline in the previous month, due to higher domestic exports of parts of PCs (+58 per cent), diodes and transistors (+70 per cent), and consumer electronics (+27 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong decreased by 12 per cent in May 2009, after the 16 per cent decline in the previous month. The decrease in non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong was mainly led by lower sales of petrochemicals (-56 per cent), electrical machinery (-29 per cent) and specialised machinery (-36 per cent).
22.
Japan - NODX to Japan declined by 29 per cent in May 2009, following the 34 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower sales of electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Japan declined by 32 per cent in May 2009, following the 35 per cent decrease in the previous month, on lower domestic exports of ICs (-27 per cent), diodes and transistors (-71 per cent) and parts of ICs (-57 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Japan in May 2009 decreased by 27 per cent, after a contraction of 34 per cent in the previous month, mainly due to lower sales of petrochemicals (-74 per cent), primary chemicals (-95 per cent) and metal waste or scrap (excluding iron) (-90 per cent).
23.
Remaining top market3 - NODX to Taiwan and South Korea increased, while NODX to Thailand contracted in May 2009.
NODX to Taiwan increased by 3.5 per cent in May 2009, as opposed to the preceding month’s 3.4 per cent decline, due to higher electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Taiwan increased by 19 per cent in May 2009, following the 22 per cent rise in the previous month. The increase in electronic NODX was mainly because of higher sales of ICs (+38 per cent), parts of ICs (+17 per cent) and disk drives (+52 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Taiwan decreased by 12 per cent in May 2009, following the 28 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was because of lower domestic exports of petrochemicals (-30 per cent), specialised machinery (-52 per cent) and electric plants and parts (-76 per cent).
NODX to South Korea increased by 0.4 per cent in May 2009, in contrast to the 20 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to an increase in electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to South Korea increased by 6.3 per cent in May 2009, in contrast to the 30 per cent decline in the previous month. The increase in electronic NODX was mainly led by higher shipments of ICs (+29 per cent), telecommunications equipment (+162 per cent) and disk drives (+47 per cent). On the other hand, non-electronic NODX to South Korea posted a 4.1 per cent decrease in May 2009, after the 9.5 per cent contraction in the previous month, mainly due to lower sales of primary chemicals (-83 per cent), piston engines (-97 per cent) and measuring instruments (-35 per cent).
NODX to Thailand declined by 20 per cent in May 2009, following the previous month’s 28 per cent contraction. The decrease was due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Thailand declined by 14 per cent in May 2009, following the 29 per cent decrease in the previous month, mainly due to lower domestic exports of parts of ICs (-58 per cent), ICs (-24 per cent) and PCs (-55 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Thailand contracted by 22 per cent in May 2009, following the 27 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower domestic exports of petrochemicals (-63 per cent), primary chemicals (-32 per cent) and specialised machinery (-60 per cent).
24.
Emerging markets4 - NODX to emerging markets increased by 31 per cent in May 2009, following the 18 per cent increase in the previous month. The increase in NODX to the emerging markets was mainly because of higher shipments to Latin America.
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