On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted (m-o-m SA) basis, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose by 20 per cent in November 2009, in contrast to the previous month’s 13 per cent decrease.
On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, NODX grew by 8.7 per cent in November 2009, compared to the 6.2 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to higher non-electronic NODX.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX to five of Singapore’s top ten NODX markets increased. In particular, NODX to the EU 27, Hong Kong and Taiwan rose by 18, 36 and 60 per cent respectively.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil re-exports (NORX) increased by 5.3 per cent in November 2009, in contrast to the 0.8 per cent decline in the previous month.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX contracted by 3.5 per cent in November 2009, after the 8.7 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower non-electronic NORX.
(I) Overall Trend
1.
On a m-o-m SA basis, NODX rose by 20 per cent in November 2009, in contrast to the previous month’s 13 per cent decrease, due to increased sales of electronic and non-electronic NODX.
2.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX grew by 8.7 per cent in November 2009, compared to the 6.2 per cent decrease in the previous month. On a 3-month moving average (3MMA) y-o-y basis, NODX contracted by 2.0 per cent in November 2009, following the 6.9 per cent decline in the previous month.
3.
On a SA basis, non-oil retained imports of intermediate goods1 (NORI) increased by S$309 million from S$4,361 million in the previous month to reach S$4,670 million in November 2009.
1 NORI is a coincident indicator for NODX.
(II) Commentaries
(a)
Performance of Key Trade Components
Total Trade
4.
On a m-o-m SA basis, total trade increased by 6.7 per cent in November 2009, in contrast to the 4.1 per cent decline in the previous month. Total exports grew by 10 per cent in November 2009, in contrast to the 2.6 per cent decrease in the previous month. Total imports increased by 2.6 per cent in November 2009, in contrast to the decrease of 5.7 per cent in the previous month.
5.
On a y-o-y basis, total trade expanded by 0.5 per cent in November 2009, compared to the 13 per cent decrease in the previous month. Total exports grew by 4.5 per cent in November 2009, compared to the 8.9 per cent contraction in the previous month. Total imports declined by 3.7 per cent in November 2009, following the 16 per cent decrease in the preceding month.
Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX)
6.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX rose by 8.7 per cent in November 2009, compared to the 6.2 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to higher non-electronic domestic exports.
7.
Electronic products.On a y-o-y basis, electronic NODX contracted by 6.1 per cent in November 2009, slower than the 14 per cent decline in the previous month. The decrease in electronic domestic exports was largely due to lower domestic exports of parts of PCs, diodes & transistors and disk drives.
8.
Non-electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NODX expanded by 19 per cent in November 2009, contrasting with the 0.6 per cent decline in the previous month. The increase in non-electronic NODX was led by higher domestic exports of pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals and civil engineering equipment parts.
Oil Domestic Exports
9.
On a m-o-m SA basis, oil domestic exports increased by 17 per cent in November 2009, following a rise of 2.7 per cent in the previous month. On a y-o-y basis, oil domestic exports rose by 4.6 per cent in November 2009, after the preceding month’s 21 per cent decrease. The y-o-y expansion of oil domestic exports was mainly due to higher sales to China (+111%), Indonesia (+51%) and Australia (+42%). In volume terms, oil domestic exports contracted by 14 per cent in November 2009, after the 12 per cent decrease in the previous month.
Non-oil Re-exports (NORX)
10.
On a m-o-m SA basis, NORX increased by 5.3 per cent in November 2009, compared to the 0.8 per cent decline in the previous month, due to a rise in electronic NORX.
11.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX declined by 3.5 per cent in November 2009, following the 8.7 per cent contraction in the previous month, due to a decrease in non-electronic NORX. On a 3MMA y-o-y basis, NORX contracted by 11 per cent in November 2009, after the 15 per cent decrease in the preceding month.
12.
On a y-o-y basis, electronic NORX increased by 4.6 per cent in November 2009, compared to the 6.0 per cent decline in the previous month. The rise in electronic NORX was due to higher re-exports of ICs (+19 per cent), office machines (+8.2 per cent) and printers (+150 per cent).
13.
On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NORX decreased by 12 per cent in November 2009, identical to the decline in the previous month. The decrease in non-electronic NORX was led by lower re-exports of piston engines (-47 per cent), civil engineering equipment parts (-32 per cent) and non-electric engines & motors (-62 per cent).
14.
NORX to all of the top 10 NORX markets, except China, South Korea and Hong Kong, decreased in November 2009. The top three contributors to the NORX contraction were Indonesia (-21 per cent), the EU 27 (-19 per cent) and Malaysia (-9.7 per cent).
(b) Non-Oil Domestic Export Markets
Overview2
15.
NODX to half of the top 10 NODX markets rose y-o-y in November 2009. NODX to the US, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia declined. The largest contributors to the y-o-y NODX increase were the EU 27, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
2 All growth rates quoted in the following analysis refer to year-on-year growth rates unless otherwise stated.
16
EU 27 –NODX to the EU 27 rose by 18 per cent in November 2009, in contrast to the 22 per cent contraction in the previous month, because of an increase in non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the EU 27 contracted by 34 per cent in November 2009, after the 36 per cent decline in the preceding month, due to lower domestic exports of parts of PCs (-46 per cent), ICs (-45 per cent) and disk drives (-13 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to the EU 27 increased by 61 per cent in November 2009, in contrast to the 12 per cent decline in the previous month. The rise in non-electronic NODX was mainly led by higher domestic exports of pharmaceuticals (+106 per cent), works of art (+3,993 per cent) and iron or steel scrap (+2,081 per cent).
17
US – NODX to the US decreased by 13 per cent in November 2009, after the 11 per cent decline in the previous month, due to lower electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the US declined by 33 per cent in November 2009, following the 30 per cent decrease in the previous month, on lower domestic exports of ICs (-55 per cent), disk drives (-22 per cent) and other computer peripherals (-54 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to the US expanded by 28 per cent in November 2009, identical to the rise in the preceding month. The surge in non-electronic NODX to the US was led by increased domestic exports of pharmaceuticals (+1,203 per cent), electrical machinery (+72 per cent) and other specialty chemicals (+74 per cent).
18.
China - NODX to China increased by 22 per cent in November 2009, reversing the 6.9 per cent decline in the previous month, due to higher electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to China increased by 17 per cent in November 2009, compared to the 12 per cent decline in the previous month. The rise in electronic NODX was led by higher domestic exports of ICs (+47 per cent), parts of ICs (+46 per cent) and disk drives (+23 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to China also rose by 25 per cent in November 2009, reversing the 4.8 per cent decrease in the preceding month, due to higher shipments of petrochemicals (+79 per cent), primary chemicals (+65 per cent) and food preparations (+215 per cent).
19.
Malaysia - NODX to Malaysia contracted by 1.5 per cent in November 2009, following the 5.6 per cent decrease in the previous month. The decline in NODX was due to lower electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Malaysia declined by 6.0 per cent in November 2009, in contrast to the 4.7 per cent expansion in the previous month. The lower sales in electronic domestic exports were mainly due to lower domestic exports of diodes & transistors (-48 per cent), bare printed circuit boards (-35 per cent) and telecommunications equipment (-63 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Malaysia increased by 2.9 per cent in November 2009, compared to the previous month’s 13 per cent contraction. The rise in non-electronic NODX was mainly because of higher domestic exports of petrochemicals (+36 per cent), non-monetary gold (+54 per cent) and disk media products (+70 per cent).
20.
Indonesia - NODX to Indonesia contracted by 0.9 per cent in November 2009, following the 13 per cent decline in the preceding month, due to lower sales of electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Indonesia declined by 17 per cent in November 2009, following the 20 per cent decrease in the previous month, largely due to lower domestic exports of parts of PCs (-56 per cent), bare printed circuit boards (-73 per cent) and parts of ICs (-23 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to Indonesia grew by 5.1 per cent in November 2009, compared to the 11 per cent contraction in the previous month. The expansion in non-electronic NODX was due to higher sales of petrochemicals (+73 per cent), aircraft parts (+480 per cent) and primary chemicals (+57 per cent).
21.
Hong Kong - NODX to Hong Kong rose by 36 per cent in November 2009, following the 12 per cent increase in the previous month, on higher electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Hong Kong registered a 45 per cent increase in November 2009, faster than the 25 per cent rise in the previous month, due to higher domestic exports of parts of PCs (+163 per cent), parts of ICs (+93 per cent) and ICs (+13 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong increased by 20 per cent in November 2009, in contrast to the 7.3 per cent decline in the previous month. The increase in non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong was mainly led by higher sales of electrical machinery (+74 per cent), petrochemicals (+47 per cent) and aircraft parts (+230 per cent).
22.
Japan - NODX to Japan decreased by 8.2 per cent in November 2009, following the previous month’s 9.7 per cent decline, due to lower sales of non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Japan rose by 6.3 per cent in November 2009, compared to the 12 per cent decrease in the previous month, on higher domestic exports of ICs (+48 per cent), parts of ICs (+6.6 per cent) and printers. Non-electronic NODX to Japan in November 2009 declined by 18 per cent, following the contraction of 7.7 per cent in the previous month, due to lower sales of disk media products (-20 per cent), petrochemicals (-39 per cent) and primary chemicals (-67 per cent).
23.
Remaining top market3 - NODX to Taiwan and South Korea increased, while NODX to Thailand contracted in November 2009.
NODX to Taiwan increased by 60 per cent in November 2009, following the preceding month’s 15 per cent rise, due to higher electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Taiwan expanded by 62 per cent in November 2009, faster than the 0.6 per cent rise in the previous month. The increase in electronic NODX was mainly because of ICs (+103 per cent), parts of ICs (+134 per cent) and office machines (+746 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Taiwan increased by 59 per cent in November 2009, following the 37 per cent expansion in the previous month. The rise in non-electronic NODX was because of higher domestic exports of specialised machinery (+1,094 per cent), measuring instruments (+186 per cent) and electrical machinery (+1,056 per cent).
NODX to South Korea increased by 48 per cent in November 2009, up on the 4.5 per cent growth in the previous month, due to a rise in electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to South Korea increased by 29 per cent in November 2009, reversing the 11 per cent decline in the previous month. The increase in electronic NODX was mainly led by higher shipments of ICs (+37 per cent), parts of ICs (+174 per cent) and disk drives (+116 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to South Korea posted a 61 per cent rise in November 2009, following the 17 per cent growth in the previous month, mainly due to higher sales of parts for tractors and motor vehicles (+216 per cent), taps cocks & valves (+4,052 per cent) and petrochemicals (+115 per cent).
NODX to Thailand declined by 8.0 per cent in November 2009, following the previous month’s 13 per cent contraction. The decrease was due to lower electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Thailand declined by 37 per cent in November 2009, following the 25 per cent decrease in the previous month, mainly due to lower domestic exports of resistors (-98 per cent), ICs (-37 per cent) and parts of PCs (-22 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Thailand expanded by 8.8 per cent in November 2009, reversing the 8.2 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to higher domestic exports of petrochemicals (+51 per cent), specialised machinery (+92 per cent) and measuring instruments (+82 per cent).
3 Includes Taiwan, Thailand and South Korea.
24.
Emerging markets4 – NODX to emerging markets increased by 5.8 per cent in November 2009, in contrast to the 5.3 per cent decrease in the previous month. The rise in NODX to the emerging markets was because of increased shipments to Indo-china.
4 Includes Indo-China, Central Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, the Caribbean, Eastern Europe, and North & South Africa.
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