On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted (m-o-m SA) basis, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) decreased by 13 per cent in October 2009, in contrast to the previous month’s 2.9 per cent increase.
On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, NODX declined by 6.1 per cent in October 2009, after the 7.3 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil re-exports (NORX) decreased by 0.8 per cent in October 2009, after the 0.5 per cent decline in the previous month.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX contracted by 8.7 per cent in October 2009, after the 19 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NORX.
Overall Trend
1.
On a m-o-m SA basis, NODX decreased by 13 per cent in October 2009, in contrast to the previous month’s 2.9 per cent increase, due to lower sales of electronic and non-electronic NODX.
2.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX declined by 6.1 per cent in October 2009, after the 7.3 per cent decrease in the previous month. On a 3-month moving average (3MMA) y-o-y basis, NODX contracted by 6.9 per cent in October 2009, following the 7.8 per cent decline in the previous month.
3.
On a SA basis, non-oil retained imports of intermediate goods1(NORI) decreased by S$334 million from S$4,727 million in the previous month to reach S$4,393 million in October 2009.
1NORI is a coincident indicator for NODX.
(II) Commentaries
(a)
Performance of Key Trade Components
Total Trade
4.
On a m-o-m SA basis, total trade decreased by 4.0 per cent in October 2009, in contrast to the 4.6 per cent rise in the previous month. Total exports declined by 2.6 per cent in October 2009, in contrast to the 1.0 per cent increase in the previous month. Total imports decreased by 5.6 per cent in October 2009, in contrast to the rise of 8.6 per cent in the previous month.
5.
On a y-o-y basis, total trade declined by 12 per cent in October 2009, after the 19 per cent decrease in the previous month. Total exports decreased by 8.9 per cent in October 2009, after the 19 per cent contraction in the previous month. Total imports declined by 16 per cent in October 2009, following the 19 per cent decrease in the preceding month.
Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX)
6.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX declined by 6.1 per cent in October 2009, after the 7.3 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic domestic exports.
7.
Electronic products.On a y-o-y basis, electronic NODX contracted by 14 per cent in October 2009, identical to the decline in the previous month. The decrease in electronic domestic exports was largely due to lower domestic exports of parts of ICs, disk drives and ICs.
8.
Non-electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NODX declined by 0.5 per cent in October 2009, after the 2.5 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was led by lower domestic exports of petrochemicals, civil engineering equipment parts and electrical power machinery.
Oil Domestic Exports
9.
On a m-o-m SA basis, oil domestic exports increased by 2.7 per cent in October 2009, after a rise of 7.2 per cent in the previous month. On a y-o-y basis, oil domestic exports declined by 21 per cent in October 2009, after the preceding month’s 35 per cent decrease. The y-o-y contraction of oil domestic exports was mainly due to lower sales to Hong Kong (-27%), Panama (-26%) and the EU 27 (-30%). In volume terms, oil domestic exports contracted by 11 per cent in October 2009, after the 0.8 per cent decrease in the previous month.
Non-oil Re-exports (NORX)
10.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil re-exports (NORX) decreased by 0.8 per cent in October 2009, after the 0.5 per cent decline in the previous month, due to a decline in electronic NORX.
11.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX declined by 8.7 per cent in October 2009, after the 19 per cent contraction in the previous month, due to a decrease in electronic and non-electronic NORX. On a 3MMA y-o-y basis, NORX contracted by 15 per cent in October 2009, after the 17 per cent decrease in the preceding month.
12.
On a y-o-y basis, electronic NORX decreased by 6.0 per cent in October 2009, following the 20 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in electronic NORX was due to lower re-exports of diodes and transistors (-34 per cent), telecommunications equipment (-26 per cent) and consumer electronics (-34 per cent).
13.
On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NORX decreased by 12 per cent in October 2009, after the 18 per cent decline in the previous month. The decrease in non-electronic NORX was led by lower re-exports of piston engines (-58 per cent), aircraft parts (-24 per cent) and iron pipes & fittings (-38 per cent).
14.
NORX to all of the top 10 NORX markets, except South Korea and China, decreased in October 2009. The top three contributors to the NORX contraction in October 2009 were Thailand (-26 per cent), the EU 27 (-17 per cent) and Malaysia (-8.7 per cent).
(b) Non-Oil Domestic Export Markets
Overview 2
15.
NODX to all of the top 10 NODX markets, except Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea, decreased y-o-y in October 2009. The largest contributors to the y-o-y NODX decline were the EU 27, the US and Indonesia.
16
EU 27 – NODX to the EU 27 contracted by 22 per cent in October 2009, after the 15 per cent contraction in the previous month, because of decreases in both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the EU 27 contracted by 36 per cent in October 2009, after the 37 per cent decline in the preceding month, due to lower domestic exports of ICs (-51 per cent), parts of PCs (-44 per cent) and disk drives (-36 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to the EU 27 decreased by 12 per cent in October 2009, after the 2.3 per cent decline in the previous month. The decrease in non-electronic NODX was mainly led by lower domestic exports of pharmaceuticals (-5.5 per cent), household goods (-97 per cent) and ships & boats (-100 per cent).
17
US – NODX to the US decreased by 11 per cent in October 2009, after the 4.7 per cent decline in the previous month, due to lower electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the US declined by 30 per cent in October 2009, after the 6.2 per cent decrease in the previous month, on lower domestic exports of ICs (-45 per cent), parts of ICs (-71 per cent) and disk drives (-34 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to the US expanded by 28 per cent in October 2009, in contrast to the 2.6 per cent decrease in the preceding month. The surge in non-electronic NODX to the US was led by increased domestic exports of pharmaceuticals (+722 per cent), specialised machinery (+44 per cent) and miscellaneous manufactured articles (+83 per cent).
18.
China - NODX to China decreased by 6.5 per cent in October 2009, after the 15 per cent decline in the previous month, due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to China decreased by 12 per cent in October 2009, after the 42 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in electronic NODX was led by lower domestic exports of parts of ICs (-47 per cent), parts of PCs (-26 per cent) and disk drives (-35 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to China also declined by 4.1 per cent in October 2009, reversing the 4.6 per cent increase in the preceding month, due to lower shipments of heating and cooling equipment (-50 per cent), disk media products (-22 per cent) and food preparations (-30 per cent).
19.
Malaysia - NODX to Malaysia contracted by 5.6 per cent in October 2009, after the 5.2 per cent decrease in the previous month. The decline in NODX was due to lower non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Malaysia rose by 4.7 per cent in October 2009, after the 5.3 per cent expansion in the previous month. The higher sales in electronic domestic exports was mainly due to higher domestic exports of parts of PCs (+23 per cent), ICs (+11 per cent) and diodes & transistors (+20 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Malaysia decreased by 13 per cent in October 2009, identical to the previous month’s contraction. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was mainly because of lower domestic exports of civil engineering equipment parts (-72 per cent), petrochemicals (-24 per cent) and articles of plastic (-38 per cent).
20.
Indonesia - NODX to Indonesia contracted by 13 per cent in October 2009, after the 22 per cent decline in the preceding month, due to lower sales of electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Indonesia declined by 20 per cent in October 2009, following the 31 per cent decrease in the previous month, largely due to lower domestic exports of parts of PCs (-59 per cent), parts of ICs (-99 per cent) and consumer electronics (-37 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to Indonesia declined by 11 per cent in October 2009, following the 19 per cent contraction in the previous month. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was due to lower sales of iron pipes & fittings (-92 per cent), civil engineering equipment parts (-63 per cent) and metal manufactures (-62 per cent).
21.
Hong Kong - NODX to Hong Kong rose by 12 per cent in October 2009, following the 4.9 per cent increase in the previous month, on higher electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Hong Kong registered a 25 per cent increase in October 2009, faster than the 9.4 per cent rise in the previous month, due to higher domestic exports of diodes & transistors (+239 per cent), parts of PCs (+203 per cent) and consumer electronics (+60 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong decreased by 7.3 per cent in October 2009, after the 2.1 per cent decline in the previous month. The decrease in non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong was mainly led by lower sales of petrochemicals (-39 per cent), disk media products (-55 per cent) and other specialty chemicals (-66 per cent).
22.
Japan - NODX to Japan decreased by 9.6 per cent in October 2009, compared to the previous month’s 1.6 per cent rise, due to lower sales of both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Japan declined by 12 per cent in October 2009, after the 5.9 per cent decrease in the previous month, on lower domestic exports of disk drives (-54 per cent), parts of ICs (-72 per cent) and consumer electronics (-47 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Japan in October 2009 declined by 7.5 per cent, compared to the growth of 7.1 per cent in the previous month, due to lower sales of petrochemicals (-48 per cent), metal waste & scrap excluding iron (-52 per cent) and specialised machinery (-53 per cent).
23.
Remaining top market3 - NODX to Taiwan and South Korea increased, while NODX to Thailand contracted in October 2009.
NODX to Taiwan increased by 15 per cent in October 2009, following the preceding month’s 13 per cent rise, due to higher electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Taiwan expanded by 0.6 per cent in October 2009, slower than the 19 per cent rise in the previous month. The increase in electronic NODX was mainly because of ICs (+52 per cent), office machines (+513 per cent) and electron tubes (+13 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Taiwan increased by 37 per cent in October 2009, after the 6.5 per cent expansion in the previous month. The rise in non-electronic NODX was because of higher domestic exports of specialised machinery (+505 per cent), measuring instruments (+278 per cent) and electrical machinery (+1,332 per cent).
NODX to South Korea increased by 4.8 per cent in October 2009, up on the 1.1 per cent growth in the previous month, due to a rise in non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to South Korea decreased by 11 per cent in October 2009, identical to the decline in the previous month. The decrease in electronic NODX was mainly led by lower shipments of parts of ICs (-79 per cent), parts of PCs (-13 per cent) and consumer electronics (-87 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to South Korea posted a 17 per cent rise in October 2009, following the 8.6 per cent growth in the previous month, mainly due to higher sales of parts for tractors and motor vehicles (+189 per cent), petrochemicals (+172 per cent) and specialised machinery (+339 per cent).
NODX to Thailand declined by 13 per cent in October 2009, after the previous month’s 12 per cent contraction. The decrease was due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Thailand declined by 25 per cent in October 2009, following the 24 per cent decrease in the previous month, mainly due to lower domestic exports of parts of ICs (-85 per cent), ICs (-22 per cent) and consumer electronics (-57 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Thailand contracted by 8.0 per cent in October 2009, following the 8.2 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to lower domestic exports of disk media products (-18 per cent), petrochemicals (-12 per cent) and pumps (-47 per cent).
24.
Emerging markets4 - NODX to emerging markets decreased by 5.2 per cent in October 2009, in contrast to the 3.6 per cent increase in the previous month. The decrease in NODX to the emerging markets was because of lower shipments to the Middle East and South Asia.
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