On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted (m-o-m SA) basis, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose by 1.7 per cent in December 2009, after the previous month’s 20 per cent increase.
On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, NODX grew by 26 per cent in December 2009, following the 8.7 per cent rise in the previous month, due to higher electronic and non-electronic NODX.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX to all of the top ten NODX markets except Japan increased. In particular, NODX to Hong Kong, Taiwan and the EU 27 rose by 79, 127 and 27 per cent respectively.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil re-exports (NORX) increased by 1.4 per cent in December 2009, after the 5.3 per cent rise in the previous month.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX increased by 12 per cent in December 2009, reversing the 3.5 per cent decrease in the previous month, due to higher electronic and non-electronic NORX.
NODX declined by 11 per cent in 2009 due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Meanwhile, NORX declined by 16 per cent in 2009, due to both electronic and non-electronic NORX.
Overall Trend
1.
On a m-o-m SA basis, NODX rose by 1.7 per cent in December 2009, after the previous month’s 20 per cent increase, due to increased sales of electronic NODX.
2.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX grew by 26 per cent in December 2009, following the 8.7 per cent rise in the previous month. On a 3-month moving average (3MMA) y-o-y basis, NODX rose by 8.2 per cent in December 2009, in contrast to the 2.0 per cent decline in the previous month.
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3.
On a SA basis, non-oil retained imports of intermediate goods1 (NORI) increased by S$345 million from S$4,664 million in the previous month to reach S$5,009 million in December 2009.
1 NORI is a coincident indicator for NODX.
(II) Commentaries
(a)
Performance of Key Trade Components
Total Trade
4.
On a m-o-m SA basis, total trade increased by 3.4 per cent in December 2009, after the 6.7 per cent rise in the previous month. Total exports grew by 1.7 per cent in December 2009, following the 10 per cent rise in the previous month. Total imports increased by 5.3 per cent in December 2009, after the 2.6 per cent rise in the previous month.
5.
On a y-o-y basis, total trade expanded by 20 per cent in December 2009, after the 0.4 per cent increase in the previous month. Total exports grew by 23 per cent in December 2009, following the 4.5 per cent rise in the previous month. Total imports rose by 16 per cent in December 2009, reversing the 3.8 per cent decrease in the preceding month.
Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX)
6.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX rose by 26 per cent in December 2009, after the 8.7 per cent growth in the previous month, due to higher electronic and non-electronic domestic exports.
7.
Electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, electronic NODX increased by 25 per cent in December 2009, reversing the 6.1 per cent decline in the previous month. The rise in electronic domestic exports was largely due to higher domestic exports of parts of ICs, ICs and parts of PCs.
8.
Non-electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NODX expanded by 27 per cent in December 2009, after the 19 per cent rise in the previous month. The increase in non-electronic NODX was led by higher domestic exports of pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals and primary chemicals.
Oil Domestic Exports
9.
On a m-o-m SA basis, oil domestic exports increased by 6.9 per cent in December 2009, following a rise of 17 per cent in the previous month. On a y-o-y basis, oil domestic exports rose by 60 per cent in December 2009, after the preceding month’s 4.5 per cent increase. The y-o-y expansion of oil domestic exports was mainly due to higher sales to Malaysia (+113%), China (+285%) and Panama (+75%). In volume terms, oil domestic exports rose by 17 per cent in December 2009, reversing the 14 per cent decrease in the previous month.
Non-oil Re-exports (NORX)
10.
On a m-o-m SA basis, NORX increased by 1.4 per cent in December 2009, after the 5.3 per cent rise in the previous month, due to a rise in non-electronic NORX.
11.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX rose by 12 per cent in December 2009, contrasting with the 3.5 per cent contraction in the previous month, due to a rise in electronic and non-electronic NORX. On a 3MMA y-o-y basis, NORX contracted by 0.7 per cent in December 2009, after the 11 per cent decrease in the preceding month.
12.
On a y-o-y basis, electronic NORX increased by 22 per cent in December 2009, after the 4.6 per cent rise in the previous month. The rise in electronic NORX was due to higher re-exports of ICs (+45 per cent), parts of ICs (+114 per cent) and parts of PCs (+10 per cent).
13.
On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NORX rose by 1.8 per cent in December 2009, reversing the 12 per cent decline in the previous month. The increase in non-electronic NORX was led by higher re-exports of petrochemicals (+88 per cent), non-monetary gold (+22 per cent) and measuring instruments (+29 per cent).
14.
NORX to all of the top 10 NORX markets, except Indonesia, the US and Thailand, increased in December 2009. The top three contributors to the NORX rise were Hong Kong (+30 per cent), China (+27 per cent) and South Korea (+56 per cent).
(b) Non-Oil Domestic Export Markets
Overview 2
15.
NODX to all of the top ten NODX markets except Japan increased y-o-y in December 2009. The largest contributors to the y-o-y NODX increase were Hong Kong, Taiwan and the EU 27.
2 All growth rates quoted in the following analysis refer to year-on-year growth rates unless otherwise stated.
16
EU 27 – NODX to the EU 27 rose by 27 per cent in December 2009, after the 18 per cent rise in the previous month, because of an increase in non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the EU 27 contracted by 6.6 per cent in December 2009, after the 34 per cent decline in the preceding month, due to lower domestic exports of ICs (-30 per cent), telecommunications equipment (-71 per cent) and other computer peripherals (-59 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to the EU 27 increased by 62 per cent in December 2009, following the 61 per cent rise in the previous month. The rise in non-electronic NODX was mainly led by higher domestic exports of pharmaceuticals (+111 per cent), aircraft parts (+36 per cent) and household goods (+131 per cent).
17
US – NODX to the US increased by 5.9 per cent in December 2009, reversing the 13 per cent decline in the previous month, due to higher non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the US declined by 1.8 per cent in December 2009, following the 33 per cent decrease in the previous month, on lower domestic exports of ICs (-27 per cent), other computer peripherals (-32 per cent) and consumer electronics (-89 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to the US expanded by 18 per cent in December 2009, after the 28 per cent rise in the preceding month. The rise in non-electronic NODX to the US was led by increased domestic exports of pharmaceuticals (+126 per cent), electrical machinery (+219 per cent) and paints, printing ink & other colouring materials (+269 per cent).
18.
China – NODX to China increased by 20 per cent in December 2009, after the 22 per cent rise in the previous month, due to higher electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to China increased by 55 per cent in December 2009, following the 17 per cent rise in the previous month. The rise in electronic NODX was led by higher domestic exports of ICs (+115 per cent), parts of ICs (+150 per cent) and consumer electronics (+163 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to China also rose by 9.3 per cent in December 2009, after the 25 per cent increase in the preceding month, due to higher shipments of petrochemicals (+92 per cent), primary chemicals (+252 per cent) and disk media products (+121 per cent).
19.
Malaysia – NODX to Malaysia rose by 18 per cent in December 2009, in contrast to the 1.5 per cent decrease in the previous month. The rise in NODX was due to higher electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Malaysia rose by 6.5 per cent in December 2009, in contrast to the 6.0 per cent contraction in the previous month. The higher sales in electronic domestic exports were mainly due to higher domestic exports of ICs (+17 per cent), parts of ICs (+54 per cent) and capacitors (+168 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Malaysia increased by 29 per cent in December 2009, after the previous month’s 2.9 per cent rise. The rise in non-electronic NODX was mainly because of higher domestic exports of petrochemicals (+70 per cent), non-monetary gold (+159 per cent) and disk media products (+153 per cent).
20.
Indonesia – NODX to Indonesia rose by 21 per cent in December 2009, in contrast to the 1.0 per cent decline in the preceding month, due to higher sales of electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Indonesia rose by 11 per cent in December 2009, reversing the 17 per cent decrease in the previous month, largely due to higher domestic exports of consumer electronics (+95 per cent), diodes & transistors (+182 per cent) and capacitors (+121 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to Indonesia grew by 24 per cent in December 2009, following the 5.0 per cent rise in the previous month. The expansion in non-electronic NODX was due to higher sales of petrochemicals (+94 per cent), non-electric machinery parts (+360 per cent) and primary chemicals (+158 per cent).
21.
Hong Kong – NODX to Hong Kong rose by 79 per cent in December 2009, following the 36 per cent increase in the previous month, on higher electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Hong Kong registered a 88 per cent increase in December 2009, faster than the 45 per cent rise in the previous month, due to higher domestic exports of parts of ICs (+389 per cent), parts of PCs (+269 per cent) and ICs (+21 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong increased by 65 per cent in December 2009, after the 20 per cent increase in the previous month. The increase in non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong was mainly led by higher sales of electrical machinery (+270 per cent), aircraft parts (+565 per cent) and specialised machinery (+239 per cent).
22.
Japan – NODX to Japan decreased by 3.9 per cent in December 2009, following the previous month’s 8.2 per cent decline, due to lower sales of non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Japan rose by 15 per cent in December 2009, after the 6.3 per cent increase in the previous month, on higher domestic exports of ICs (+42 per cent), disk drives (+51 per cent) and parts of PCs (+24 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Japan in December 2009 declined by 13 per cent, following the contraction of 18 per cent in the previous month, due to lower sales of articles of plastic (-94 per cent), disk media products (-23 per cent) and electrical circuit apparatus (-53 per cent).
23.
Remaining top market3 – NODX to Taiwan, South Korea and Thailand rose in December 2009.
NODX to Taiwan increased by 127 per cent in December 2009, following the preceding month’s 60 per cent rise, due to higher electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Taiwan rose by 128 per cent in December 2009, faster than the 62 per cent rise in the previous month. The increase in electronic NODX was mainly because of ICs (+174 per cent), parts of ICs (+275 per cent) and parts of PCs (+18 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Taiwan increased by 125 per cent in December 2009, following the 59 per cent expansion in the previous month. The rise in non-electronic NODX was because of higher domestic exports of specialised machinery (+944 per cent), measuring instruments (+364 per cent) and other specialty chemicals (+245 per cent).
NODX to South Korea increased by 65 per cent in December 2009, following the 48 per cent growth in the previous month, due to a rise in electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to South Korea increased by 66 per cent in December 2009, after the 29 per cent rise in the previous month. The increase in electronic NODX was mainly led by higher shipments of ICs (+60 per cent), parts of PCs (+92 per cent) and parts of ICs (+142 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to South Korea posted a 64 per cent rise in December 2009, following the 60 per cent growth in the previous month, mainly due to higher sales of parts for tractors and motor vehicles (+67 per cent), specialised machinery (+981 per cent) and other specialty chemicals (+101 per cent).
NODX to Thailand rose by 58 per cent in December 2009, reversing the previous month’s 8.2 per cent contraction. The rise was due to higher electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Thailand rose by 36 per cent in December 2009, compared to the 37 per cent decrease in the previous month, mainly due to higher domestic exports of parts of PCs (+102 per cent), parts of ICs (+146 per cent) and ICs (+23 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Thailand expanded by 67 per cent in December 2009, after the 8.4 per cent increase in the previous month, due to higher domestic exports of disk media products (+147 per cent), petrochemicals (+78 per cent) and electrical circuit apparatus (+181 per cent).
3 Includes Taiwan, Thailand and South Korea.
24.
Emerging markets4 – NODX to emerging markets increased by 12 per cent in December 2009, after the 5.7 per cent rise in the previous month. The rise in NODX to the emerging markets was because of increased shipments to South Asia and Latin America.
4 Includes Indo-China, Central Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, the Caribbean, Eastern Europe, and North & South Africa.
(III) Performance for 2009
25.
Total trade declined by 19 per cent in 2009, due to lower oil and non-oil trade. Total exports decreased by 18 per cent while total imports declined by 21 per cent.
26.
NODX declined by 11 per cent in 2009 due to lower electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX contracted by 18 per cent in 2009 while non-electronic NODX decreased by 5.7 per cent. The decline in electronic NODX was mainly due to lower sales of parts of PCs (-18 per cent), parts of ICs (-30 per cent) and ICs (-8.7 per cent). Similarly, the contraction of non-electronic NODX was attributed to declined domestic exports of petrochemicals (-24 per cent), heating & cooling equipment (-46 per cent) and other specialty chemicals (-21 per cent). Of the top ten NODX markets, the US, the EU 27 and Malaysia were the largest contributors to the NODX contraction.
27.
NORX declined by 16 per cent in 2009, mainly due to lower electronic NORX which reinforced the decline in non-electronic NORX. Electronic NORX contracted by 18 per cent whereas non-electronic NORX declined by 12 per cent. The decrease in electronic NORX was because of reduced re-exports of ICs (-8.2 per cent), parts of PCs (-30 per cent) and telecommunications equipment (-35 per cent). The decrease in non-electronic NORX was mainly led by lower sales of piston engines (-28 per cent), primary chemicals (-45 per cent) and civil engineering equipment parts (-13 per cent).
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