On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted (m-o-m SA) basis, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) declined by 8.9 per cent in January 2010, compared to the previous month’s 4.2 per cent increase.
On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, NODX grew by 21 per cent in January 2010, following the 26 per cent rise in the previous month, due to higher electronic and non-electronic NODX.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX to all of the top ten NODX markets, except the EU 27, increased. In particular, NODX to China, Hong Kong and Taiwan rose by 76 per cent, 97 per cent and 104 per cent respectively.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil re-exports (NORX) increased by 7.4 per cent in January 2010, reversing the 0.4 per cent decline in the previous month.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX increased by 31 per cent in January 2010, after the 12 per cent rise in the previous month, due to higher electronic and non-electronic NORX.
Overall Trend
1.
On a m-o-m SA basis, NODX declined by 8.9 per cent in January 2010, after the previous month’s 4.2 per cent increase, due to decreased sales of electronic and non-electronic NODX.
2.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX grew by 21 per cent in January 2010, following the 26 per cent rise in the previous month. On a 3-month moving average (3MMA) y-o-y basis, NODX rose by 18 per cent in January 2010, after the 8.2 per cent increase in the previous month.
3.
On a SA basis, non-oil retained imports of intermediate goods1 (NORI) decreased by S$545 million from S$4,909 million in the previous month to reach S$4,364 million in January 2010.
1 NORI is a coincident indicator for NODX.
(II) Commentaries
(a)
Performance of Key Trade Components
Total Trade
4.
On a m-o-m SA basis, total trade increased by 3.5 per cent in January 2010, after the 2.4 per cent rise in the previous month. Total exports grew by 3.6 per cent in January 2010, following the 1.1 per cent rise in the previous month. Total imports increased by 3.3 per cent in January 2010, after the 4.0 per cent rise in the previous month.
5.
On a y-o-y basis,
total trade expanded by 33 per cent in January 2010, after the 20 per cent increase in the previous month. Total exports grew by 37 per cent in January 2010, following the 23 per cent rise in the previous month. Total imports rose by 29 per cent in January 2010, after the 16 per cent increase in the preceding month.
Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX)
6.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX rose by 21 per cent in January 2010, after the 26 per cent growth in the previous month, due to higher electronic and non-electronic domestic exports.
7.
Electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, electronic NODX increased by 23 per cent in January 2010, after the 25 per cent rise in the previous month. The expansion in electronic domestic exports was largely due to higher domestic exports of parts of ICs, ICs and parts of PCs.
8.
Non-electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NODX expanded by 20 per cent in January 2010, after the 27 per cent rise in the previous month. The increase in non-electronic NODX was led by higher domestic exports of petrochemicals, primary chemicals and specialised machinery.
Oil Domestic Exports
9.
On a m-o-m SA basis, oil domestic exports increased by 1.6 per cent in January 2010, following a rise of 2.6 per cent in the previous month. On a y-o-y basis, oil domestic exports expanded by 64 per cent in January 2010, after the preceding month’s 60 per cent increase. The y-o-y rise of oil domestic exports was mainly due to higher sales to Malaysia (+201%), Panama (+112%) and China (+174%). In volume terms, oil domestic exports increased by 15 per cent in January 2010, following the 17 per cent increase in the previous month.
Non-oil Re-exports (NORX)
10.
On a m-o-m SA basis, NORX increased by 7.4 per cent in January 2010, reversing the 0.4 per cent decline in the previous month, due to a rise in electronic and non-electronic NORX.
11.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX rose by 31 per cent in January 2010, following the 12 per cent expansion in the previous month, due to a rise in electronic and non-electronic NORX. On a 3MMA y-o-y basis, NORX rose by 11 per cent in January 2010, reversing the 0.7 per cent decrease in the preceding month.
12.
On a y-o-y basis, electronic NORX increased by 46 per cent in January 2010, after the 22 per cent rise in the previous month. The expansion in electronic NORX was due to higher re-exports of ICs (+63 per cent), parts of PCs (+25 per cent) and diodes & transistors (+26 per cent).
13.
On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NORX rose by 15 per cent in January 2010, after the 1.8 per cent increase in the previous month. The expansion in non-electronic NORX was led by higher re-exports of petrochemicals (+189 per cent), other specialty chemicals (+95 per cent) and electrical circuit apparatus (+44 per cent).
14.
NORX to all of the top 10 NORX markets increased in January 2010. The top three contributors to the NORX rise were China (+96 per cent), Hong Kong (+62 per cent) and Malaysia (+32 per cent).
(b) Non-Oil Domestic Export Markets
Overview 2
15.
NODX to all of the top ten NODX markets, except the EU 27, increased y-o-y in January 2010. The largest contributors to the y-o-y NODX increase were China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
2 All growth rates quoted in the following analysis refer to year-on-year growth rates unless otherwise stated.
16
EU 27 – NODX to the EU 27 declined by 31 per cent in January 2010, compared to the 27 per cent rise in the previous month, because of a decrease in electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the EU 27 contracted by 2.8 per cent in January 2010, after the 6.6 per cent decline in the preceding month, due to lower domestic exports of parts of PCs (-17 per cent), ICs (-17 per cent) and telecommunications equipment (-68 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to the EU 27 decreased by 42 per cent in January 2010, compared to the 62 per cent rise in the previous month. The decline in non-electronic NODX was mainly led by lower domestic exports of pharmaceuticals (-63 per cent), measuring instruments (-17 per cent) and aircraft parts (-14 per cent).
17
US – NODX to the US increased by 16 per cent in January 2010, after the 5.9 per cent rise in the previous month, due to higher non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the US declined by 15 per cent in January 2010, following the 1.8 per cent decrease in the previous month, on lower domestic exports of ICs (-52 per cent), telecommunications equipment (-34 per cent) and diodes & transistors (-24 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to the US expanded by 72 per cent in January 2010, after the 18 per cent rise in the preceding month. The increase in non-electronic NODX to the US was led by higher domestic exports of pharmaceuticals (+445 per cent), measuring instruments (+79 per cent) and specialised machinery (+162 per cent).
18.
China – NODX to China increased by 76 per cent in January 2010, after the 20 per cent rise in the previous month, due to higher electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to China expanded by 50 per cent in January 2010, following the 55 per cent rise in the previous month. The increase in electronic NODX was led by higher domestic exports of ICs (+72 per cent), parts of ICs (+151 per cent) and disk drives (+63 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to China also rose by 89 per cent in January 2010, after the 9.3 per cent increase in the preceding month, due to higher shipments of petrochemicals (+120 per cent), primary chemicals (+227 per cent) and disk media products (+91 per cent).
19.
Malaysia – NODX to Malaysia rose by 34 per cent in January 2010, following the 18 per cent increase in the previous month. The rise in NODX was due to higher electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Malaysia expanded by 12 per cent in January 2010, after the 6.5 per cent increase in the previous month. The higher sales in electronic domestic exports were mainly due to higher domestic exports of parts of ICs (+153 per cent), ICs (+7.5 per cent) and parts of PCs (+13 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Malaysia increased by 57 per cent in January 2010, after the previous month’s 29 per cent rise. The rise in non-electronic NODX was mainly because of higher domestic exports of petrochemicals (+118 per cent), non-monetary gold (+184 per cent) and specialised machinery (+148 per cent).
20.
Indonesia – NODX to Indonesia rose by 39 per cent in January 2010, following the 21 per cent increase in the preceding month, due to higher sales of electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Indonesia expanded by 45 per cent in January 2010, after the 11 per cent increase in the previous month, largely due to higher domestic exports of PCs (+1,327 per cent), ICs (+124 per cent) and other computer peripherals (+660 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to Indonesia grew by 38 per cent in January 2010, following the 24 per cent rise in the previous month. The expansion in non-electronic NODX was due to higher sales of petrochemicals (+63 per cent), electrical circuit apparatus (+59 per cent) and primary chemicals (+174 per cent).
21.
Hong Kong – NODX to Hong Kong rose by 97 per cent in January 2010, following the 79 per cent expansion in the previous month, on higher electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Hong Kong registered a 99 per cent increase in January 2010, after the 88 per cent rise in the previous month, due to higher domestic exports of ICs (+65 per cent), parts of PCs (+202 per cent) and parts of ICs (+166 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong increased by 94 per cent in January 2010, after the 65 per cent rise in the previous month. The expansion in non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong was mainly led by higher sales of petrochemicals (+223 per cent), electrical machinery (+129 per cent) and disk media products (+534 per cent).
22.
Japan – NODX to Japan increased by 16 per cent in January 2010, reversing the previous month’s 3.9 per cent decline, due to higher sales of electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Japan rose by 5.4 per cent in January 2010, after the 15 per cent expansion in the previous month, on higher domestic exports of parts of ICs (+117 per cent), disk drives (+29 per cent) and parts of PCs (+5.5 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Japan in January 2010 rose by 24 per cent, reversing the contraction of 13 per cent in the previous month, due to higher sales of pharmaceuticals (+109 per cent), electrical machinery (+196 per cent) and non-monetary gold (+248 per cent).
23.
Remaining top market3 – NODX to Taiwan, South Korea and Thailand rose in January 2010.
NODX to Taiwan increased by 104 per cent in January 2010, following the preceding month’s 127 per cent rise, due to higher electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Taiwan expanded by 93 per cent in January 2010, after the 128 per cent rise in the previous month. The increase in electronic NODX was mainly because of ICs (+83 per cent), parts of ICs (+343 per cent) and parts of PCs (+29 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Taiwan increased by 125 per cent in January 2010, identical to the previous month’s expansion. The rise in non-electronic NODX was because of higher domestic exports of petrochemicals (+197 per cent), specialised machinery (+1,476 per cent) and metalworking machinery (+8,540 per cent).
NODX to South Korea increased by 46 per cent in January 2010, following the 65 per cent growth in the previous month, due to a rise in electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to South Korea increased by 26 per cent in January 2010, after the 66 per cent rise in the previous month. The expansion in electronic NODX was mainly led by higher shipments of ICs (+34 per cent), parts of PCs (+36 per cent) and parts of ICs (+84 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to South Korea posted a 64 per cent rise in January 2010, identical to the previous month’s growth, mainly due to higher sales of parts for tractors and motor vehicles (+132 per cent), primary chemicals (+471 per cent) and specialised machinery (+1,050 per cent).
NODX to Thailand rose by 54 per cent in January 2010, after the previous month’s 58 per cent expansion. The increase was due to higher electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Thailand rose by 37 per cent in January 2010, after the 36 per cent expansion in the previous month, mainly due to higher domestic exports of parts of PCs (+75 per cent), ICs (+79 per cent) and diodes & transistors (+85 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Thailand increased by 62 per cent in January 2010, after the 67 per cent rise in the previous month, due to higher domestic exports of disk media products (+87 per cent), petrochemicals (+120 per cent) and primary chemicals (+83 per cent).
3 Includes Taiwan, Thailand and South Korea.
24.
Emerging markets4 –NODX to emerging markets increased by 1.4 per cent in January 2010, after the 12 per cent rise in the previous month. The rise in NODX to the emerging markets was because of increased shipments to Indo-China and South Asia.
4 Includes Indo-China, Central Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, the Caribbean, Eastern Europe, and North & South Africa.
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