MR No.: 043/10 Singapore, Wednesday, 14 July 2010 Highlights
On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted (m-o-m SA) basis, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) decreased marginally by 0.1 per cent in June 2010, after the previous month’s marginal 0.2 per cent decline.
On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, NODX grew by 29 per cent in June 2010, following the 24 per cent rise in the previous month, due to both electronic and non-electronic NODX.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX to all of the top ten NODX markets increased. In particular, NODX to the EU 27, China and Japan rose by 75 per cent, 39 per cent and 50 per cent respectively.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil re-exports (NORX) contracted by 2.3 per cent in June 2010, in contrast to the 5.1 per cent expansion in the previous month.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX increased by 25 per cent in June 2010, after the 23 per cent rise in the previous month, due to both electronic and non-electronic NORX.
The projection for total trade growth in 2010 has been revised upwards from between 14 and 16 per cent to between 17 and 19 per cent. The forecast for NODX growth in 2010 has also been raised to between 17 and 19 per cent, up from the previous projection of between 15 and 17 per cent.
Overall Trend
1.
1. On a m-o-m SA basis, NODX decreased marginally by 0.1 per cent in June 2010, after the previous month’s marginal 0.2 per cent decline, due to lower sales of electronic NODX.
2.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX grew by 29 per cent in June 2010, following the 24 per cent rise in the previous month. On a 3-month moving average (3MMA) y-o-y basis, NODX increased by 28 per cent in June 2010, after the 27 per cent expansion in the previous month.
3.
On a m-o-m SA basis, non-oil retained imports of intermediate goods (NORI) decreased by S$73 million from S$5,442 million in the previous month to reach S$5,369 million in June 2010.
1 NORI is a coincident indicator for NODX.
(II) Commentaries
(a)
Performance of Key Trade Components
Total Trade
4.
On a m-o-m SA basis, total trade rose by 1.6 per cent in June 2010, compared to the 1.7 per cent decline in the previous month. Total exports contracted by 1.8 per cent in June 2010, in contrast to the 1.7 per cent expansion in the previous month. Total imports increased by 5.7 per cent in June 2010, in contrast to the 5.4 per cent contraction in the previous month.
5.
On a y-o-y basis, total trade expanded by 28 per cent in June 2010, after the 25 per cent increase in the previous month. Total exports grew by 28 per cent in June 2010, following the 29 per cent rise in the previous month. Total imports expanded by 27 per cent in June 2010, after the 21 per cent increase in the preceding month.
Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX)
6.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX rose by 29 per cent in June 2010, after the 24 per cent growth in the previous month, due to both electronic and non-electronic domestic exports.
7.
Electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, electronic NODX increased by 44 per cent in June 2010, after the 39 per cent rise in the previous month. The expansion in electronic domestic exports was largely due to higher domestic exports of ICs, parts of ICs and parts of PCs.
8.
Non-electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, 1. non-electronic NODX grew by 21 per cent in June 2010, after the 16 per cent rise in the previous month. The increase in non-electronic NODX was led by higher domestic exports of pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals and specialised machinery.
Oil Domestic Exports
9.
On a m-o-m SA basis, oil domestic exports decreased by 12 per cent in June 2010, compared to a rise of 2.0 per cent in the previous month. On a y-o-y basis, oil domestic exports expanded by 28 per cent in June 2010, after the preceding month’s 56 per cent increase. The y-o-y rise of oil domestic exports was mainly due to higher sales to India (+235%), China (+91%) and Malaysia (+29%). In volume terms, oil domestic exports increased by 16 per cent in June 2010, after the 18 per cent rise in the previous month.
Non-oil Re-exports (NORX)
10.
On a m-o-m SA basis, NORX decreased by 2.3 per cent in June 2010, compared to the 5.1 per cent rise in the previous month, due to a decline in non-electronic NORX.
11.
On a y-o-y basis, NORX grew by 25 per cent in June 2010, after the 23 per cent expansion in the previous month, due to a rise in both electronic and non-electronic NORX. On a 3MMA y-o-y basis, NORX increased by 22 per cent in June 2010, after the 21 per cent expansion in the preceding month.
12.
On a y-o-y basis, electronic NORX increased by 32 per cent in June 2010, after the 25 per cent rise in the previous month. The expansion in electronic NORX was due to higher re-exports of ICs (+31 per cent), parts of ICs (+307 per cent) and parts of PCs (+28 per cent).
13.
On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NORX rose by 17 per cent in June 2010, after the 21 per cent increase in the previous month. The rise in non-electronic NORX was led by higher re-exports of petrochemicals (+109 per cent), non-monetary gold (+279 per cent) and specialised machinery (+160 per cent).
14.
NORX to all of the top 10 NORX markets, except South Korea, increased in June 2010. The top three contributors to the NORX rise were Malaysia (+36 per cent), Hong Kong (+38 per cent) and China (+35 per cent).
(b) Non-Oil Domestic Export Markets
Overview2
15.
NODX to all of the top ten NODX markets increased y-o-y in June 2010. The largest contributors to the increase were the EU 27, China and Japan.
2 All growth rates quoted in the following analysis refer to year-on-year growth rates unless otherwise stated.
16
EU 27 – NODX to the EU 27 rose by 75 per cent in June 2010, after the 5.7 per cent expansion in the previous month, because of an increase in both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the EU 27 expanded by 88 per cent in June 2010, after the previous month’s 43 per cent growth, due to higher domestic exports of parts of PCs (+123 per cent), ICs (+86 per cent) and parts of ICs (+200 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to the EU 27 increased by 69 per cent in June 2010, in contrast to the 7.5 per cent contraction in the previous month. The rise in non-electronic NODX was mainly led by pharmaceuticals (+104 per cent), electrical machinery (+184 per cent) and silver & platinum metal (+373 per cent).
17
US – NODX to the US was static in June 2010, after the 29 per cent rise in the previous month, due to an increase in electronic NODX which offset the decrease in non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to the US expanded by 36 per cent in June 2010, after the 29 per cent increase in the previous month, due to ICs (+79 per cent), parts of PCs (+28 per cent) and parts of ICs (+78 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to the US shrank by 23 per cent in June 2010, in contrast to the 28 per cent rise in the preceding month. The decline in non-electronic NODX to the US was led by domestic exports of ships & boats (-100 per cent), medical apparatus (-37 per cent) and electrical circuit apparatus (-40 per cent).
18.
China - NODX to China grew by 39 per cent in June 2010, after the 64 per cent rise in the previous month, due to both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to China expanded by 77 per cent in June 2010, after the 84 per cent rise in the previous month. The increase in electronic NODX was led by ICs (+116 per cent), parts of ICs (+142 per cent) and parts of PCs (+49 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to China expanded by 24 per cent in June 2010, after the 55 per cent increase in the preceding month, due to shipments of primary chemicals (+154 per cent), petrochemicals (+37 per cent) and specialised machinery (+127 per cent).
19.
Malaysia – NODX to Malaysia increased by 25 per cent in June 2010, identical to the increase in the previous month. The expansion in NODX was due to both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Malaysia increased by 20 per cent in June 2010, after the 18 per cent rise in the previous month. This was mainly due to ICs (+59 per cent), parts of ICs (+277 per cent) and diodes & transistors (+41 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Malaysia increased by 30 per cent in June 2010, the same as the previous month’s rise. The expansion in non-electronic NODX was mainly because of specialised machinery (+348 per cent), petrochemicals (+36 per cent) and non-monetary gold (+47 per cent).
20.
Indonesia – NODX to Indonesia grew by 26 per cent in June 2010, following the 19 per cent increase in the preceding month, due to higher sales of both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Indonesia expanded by 6.4 per cent in June 2010, after the 1.9 per cent increase in the previous month, largely due to ICs (+90 per cent), consumer electronics (+22 per cent) and PCs (+17 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to Indonesia grew by 33 per cent in June 2010, following the 24 per cent rise in the previous month. The expansion in non-electronic NODX was mainly due to petrochemicals (+100 per cent), parts for non-electric machinery (+342 per cent) and electrical machinery (+64 per cent).
21.
Hong Kong – NODX to Hong Kong rose by 36 per cent in June 2010, following the 51 per cent expansion in the previous month, on both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Hong Kong registered a 40 per cent increase in June 2010, after the 59 per cent rise in the previous month, because of parts of ICs (+116 per cent), ICs (+33 per cent) and parts of PCs (+30 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong increased by 30 per cent in June 2010, after the 38 per cent rise in the previous month. The expansion in non-electronic NODX to Hong Kong was mainly led by sales of ships & boats, non-monetary gold (+85 per cent) and petrochemicals (+26 per cent).
22.
Japan – NODX to Japan increased by 50 per cent in June 2010, after the previous month’s 66 per cent rise, due to higher sales of both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Japan rose by 13 per cent in June 2010, after the 28 per cent expansion in the previous month, on domestic exports of parts of ICs (+125 per cent), consumer electronics (+61 per cent) and telecommunications equipment (+480 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Japan in June 2010 increased by 75 per cent, after the expansion of 93 per cent in the previous month, due to sales of pharmaceuticals (+399 per cent), disk media products (+61 per cent) and specialised machinery (+294 per cent).
23.
Remaining top market3 – NODX to Taiwan, South Korea and Thailand rose in June 2010.
NODX to Taiwan increased by 65 per cent in June 2010, following the preceding month’s 40 per cent rise, due to both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to Taiwan expanded by 64 per cent in June 2010, after the 44 per cent rise in the previous month. The increase in electronic NODX was mainly because of ICs (+76 per cent), parts of ICs (+59 per cent) and diodes & transistors (+37 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Taiwan expanded by 68 per cent in June 2010, after the previous month’s growth of 35 per cent, due to specialised machinery (+555 per cent), primary chemicals (+355 per cent) and petrochemicals (+48 per cent).
NODX to South Korea grew by 49 per cent in June 2010, following the 38 per cent growth in the previous month, due to a rise in both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to South Korea expanded by 40 per cent in June 2010, after the 30 per cent rise in the previous month. This increase was mainly led by shipments of ICs (+25 per cent), parts of PCs (+89 per cent) and parts of ICs (+143 per cent). Meanwhile, non-electronic NODX to South Korea posted a 56 per cent growth in June 2010, following the previous month’s 44 per cent increase, mainly due to sales of specialised machinery (+995 per cent), primary chemicals (+123 per cent) and measuring instruments (+133 per cent).
NODX to Thailand rose by 26 per cent in June 2010, after the previous month’s 30 per cent expansion. The increase was due to both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic NODX to Thailand rose by 63 per cent in June 2010, after the 47 per cent expansion in the previous month, mainly due to domestic exports of ICs (+76 per cent), parts of ICs (+186 per cent) and parts of PCs (+36 per cent). Non-electronic NODX to Thailand increased by 15 per cent in June 2010, after the 24 per cent rise in the previous month, due to domestic exports of petrochemicals (+123 per cent), specialised machinery (+251 per cent) and pumps (+123 per cent).
3 Namely Taiwan, South Korea and Thailand.
24.
Emerging markets4 – NODX to emerging markets rose by 8.2 per cent in June 2010, compared to the 17 per cent decline in the previous month. The rise in NODX to the emerging markets was because of higher shipments to South Asia.
(III) Revised Outlook for 2010
25.
The projection for total trade growth in 2010 has been revised upwards from between 14 and 16 percent to between 17 and 19 per cent. The forecast for NODX growth in 2010 has also been raised to between 17 and 19 per cent, up from the previous projection of between 15 and 17 per cent. The following details the reasons for the revision:
Better than expected second quarter trade performance The y-o-y expansion in both Singapore's total trade and NODX was larger than expected for the second quarter of 2010, at 28 per cent each. The corresponding figures for the second quarter of 2009 were declines of 27 per cent and 14 per cent.
Strong trade growth of Asian economies Asian economies continued to enjoy buoyant growth in the first half of 2010, with the IMF upgrading Asia’s 2010 real GDP growth forecast to 7.5 percent , up from April’s forecast of 6.9 per cent. This is also reflected in their trade performance with most Asian economies’ trade growing by double-digits for the first five months of 2010. China especially registered strong import demand with its imports growing by 49 per cent on a y-o-y basis in May. China’s trading partners are expected to benefit from the strong performance of Chinese imports. Imports of our major Asian trading partners e.g. Indonesia and Malaysia also grew by more than 30 per cent in May 2010. This has had a positive impact on Singapore’s exports, since they are among Singapore’s main trading partners.
Revised outlook in global semiconductor demand Global semiconductor sales are expected to grow at a much faster pace than in 2009. Gartner has upgraded its forecast of semiconductor sales in 2010 to 27.1 per cent , compared to its previous forecast of 19.9 per cent . Singapore’s electronics trade is expected to benefit from this.
4 Consisting of Indo-China, Central Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, the Caribbean, Eastern Europe, and North & South Africa. 5 World Economic Outlook Update, July 2010.
For more detailed trade data,you may wish to subscribe to:- Monthly TradeReport Receive 12 monthly detailed reports on Singapore's trade performance StatLink Online reports listing 3-year data (values & volumes) on Singapore's trade in terms of countries and commodities.
Trade Statistics via SMS Alert Receive free monthly trade stats via your mobile phone. SMS "TS [space] name [space] company name [space] email address" to 9329 3908 to apply.
login, click here.
